I agree Obama will get a lot less votes in 2012 (assuming he’s on the ballot) than he did in 2008.
But in a 3-way election scenario, he’s still got a reasonable shot at winning because the support from his “base” is rock solid.
As for the “alternative” voice to the establishment media, how did they do vis a vis Baraq in 2008?
Reasonable shot? I’d say more like a lock. If there is a significant third party candidate in 2012, then Obama will certainly be re-elected - potentially by a landslide in terms of electoral votes.
If it’s a Tea Party candidate who can split the Republican and right-leaning Independent votes, then we might see states like South Carolina and Texas in the blue column next time. That’s the nature of plurality, winner-take-all elections.