To start with Obama is a true ideologue while Bill Clinton was an amoral political opportunists. Bill Clinton had some hard headed political realists advising him, Obama is surrounded by sycophantic fellow travelers. So no “tack to the right” by Obama.
The alternative media was in its infancy in 1996. Other then Rush Limbaugh there was almost no alternative national voice to the Establishment Media. Also, the Internet was mainly a “fad” know primarily to the avate garde of the computer techie community.
The other thing to remember is the economy had significantly improved by 1996. We hit a 5.5% unemployment number in, I think, May of that year. People were feeling a lot more hopeful in 1996 then they were in 1994 so there was a “Don't rock the boat” mood with many voters.
Obama will have no such boost to help his numbers since everything they are doing in DC these days is designed to be a jobs killer
Obama is Jimmy Carter 2.0
I agree Obama will get a lot less votes in 2012 (assuming he’s on the ballot) than he did in 2008.
But in a 3-way election scenario, he’s still got a reasonable shot at winning because the support from his “base” is rock solid.
As for the “alternative” voice to the establishment media, how did they do vis a vis Baraq in 2008?
And lest we forget, the Republicans nominated Bob Dole because it was 'his turn'. While a dedicated public servant for years and a decorated war hero, Dole ran a campaign as if he had one eye on the Presidency and the other eye on retirement.
I don't know if I have enough confidence in the Republican party not to shoot themselves in the foot again.