True but the country has changed a lot and is more polarized. I really feel Baraq has a solid underpinning of support from:
minorities
illegals
dead voters
union members
govt employees
Remember that nearly half now pay no income tax.
To start with Obama is a true ideologue while Bill Clinton was an amoral political opportunists. Bill Clinton had some hard headed political realists advising him, Obama is surrounded by sycophantic fellow travelers. So no “tack to the right” by Obama.
The alternative media was in its infancy in 1996. Other then Rush Limbaugh there was almost no alternative national voice to the Establishment Media. Also, the Internet was mainly a “fad” know primarily to the avate garde of the computer techie community.
The other thing to remember is the economy had significantly improved by 1996. We hit a 5.5% unemployment number in, I think, May of that year. People were feeling a lot more hopeful in 1996 then they were in 1994 so there was a “Don't rock the boat” mood with many voters.
Obama will have no such boost to help his numbers since everything they are doing in DC these days is designed to be a jobs killer
Obama is Jimmy Carter 2.0