Posted on 06/25/2010 10:46:40 AM PDT by Rational Thought
It's getting close: the fabled -10% annualized change (see David Rosenberg) which guarantees a recession is now just 3.1% away, which at this rate of collapse will be breached in two weeks. The ECRI is now at December 2007 levels, the time when the last recession officially started. The index dropped from an annualized revised -5.8% (previously -5.7%) to -6.9%. As a reminder, from Rosie, "It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag. Keep your eye on the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession … only 100% of the time (42 years of data)." We are practically there.
More on the ECRI
http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/news/2010/june/pdf/3radb25mavjw1pk.pdf
Frankly, I am surprised it has taken this long....The Regime is smiling.
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