Posted on 06/17/2010 2:47:44 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Mansell was a lousy candidate.
Thanks!
A local radio station morning show refers to Etheridge as Boom-Boom. LOL
Etheridge’s new campaign slogan - “Vote for Bob, or he’ll kick your butt!”
This poll has the Libertarian in double digits. Someone suggested that could mean rat voters mad at Ethridge chose the Libertarian in the poll, and that their anger will abate.
Ping
The poll was commissioned by Civitas, a local conservative/business group, and conducted by SurveyUSA.
Ellmers could win, but she needs $ and one or two good staffers.
Interesting. Do you think it should go on the list now or wait a couple of weeks and see how the dust settles? Still a LOT of undecideds in that race and considering Etheridge is an incumbent, that bodes well for the challenger. At 38% support, he is down to the core Dem base, it would seem.
Even though this district went for Obama in 2008, it was only by 5 points and it went for Bush both times (6 pts. in 2000 and 10 pts. in 2004).
I’d definitely wait to see how things go before making it a key race. If the second tier list was active it could go on there at once.
See Posts 29 and 30.
I'll post the Tier-2 data for NC-02 in a bit.
In any case, here is the KeyHouseRaces Tier 2 List. These are the potential districts that are the best candidates for upgrade to the KeyHouseRaces Master List.
| District | Dem Primary Winner | R-Seats | Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| CA | 23 | Lois Capps | Tom Watson | CA | 8-Jun | Safe D | CA | 23 | ||||
| CO | 7 | Ed Perlmulter | Ryan Frazier | Lang Sias | Jimmy Lakey | CO | 10-Aug | Safe D | CO | 7 | ||
| CT | 2 | Joe Courtney | Daria Novak | Matthew Daly | CT | 10-Aug | Safe D | CT | 2 | |||
| FL | 19 | Open (Wexler D) | Edward Lynch | Joe Budd | FL | 24-Aug | Safe D | FL | 19 | |||
| FL | 20 | Debbie Wasserman | Robert Lowry | Stephen Dworkowitz | Karen Harrington | FL | 24-Aug | Safe D | FL | 20 | ||
| IA | 2 | David Loebsack | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | IA | 8-Jun | Safe D | IA | 2 | ||||
| IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Bobby Schilling | IL | 2-Feb | Safe D | IL | 17 | ||||
| MA | 2 | Richard Neal | Jay Fleitman | Tom Wesley | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 2 | |||
| MA | 5 | Nikki Tsongas | Jon Goinik | Sam Meas | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 5 | |||
| MA | 6 | John Tierney | Bill Hudak | Rob McCarthy | Dave Sukoff | MA | 14-Sep | Safe D | MA | 6 | ||
| MD | 5 | Steny Hoyer | Collins Bailey | Jesse James Dann | Charles Lollar | MD | 14-Sep | Safe D | MD | 5 | ||
| ME | 2 | Mich Michaud | Jason Levesque | ME | 8-Jun | Safe D | ME | 2 | ||||
| NC | 2 | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | NC | 4-May | Likely D | NC | 2 | ||||
| NC | 4 | David Price | William Lawson | NC | 4-May | Safe D | NC | 4 | ||||
| NC | 11 | Heath Schuler | Jeff Miller | NC | 4-May | Likely D | NC | 11 | ||||
| NC | 13 | Brad Miller | Bill Randall | Bernie Reeves | Runoff 6/22 | NC | 4-May | Safe D | NC | 13 | ||
| NJ | 2 | Gary Stein | Incumbent | Frank LoBiondo | NJ | 8-Jun | Safe R | NJ | 2 | |||
| NJ | 6 | Frank Pallone | Anna Little | NJ | 8-Jun | Safe D | NJ | 6 | ||||
| PA | 13 | Allyson Schwartz | Dee Adock | PA | 18-May | Safe D | PA | 13 | ||||
| RI | 1 | Open (Patrick Kennedy D) | John Loughlin | RI | 14-Sep | Likely D | RI | 1 | ||||
| TN | 5 | Jim Cooper | Patrick Miranda | Lonnie Spivak | Jeff Hartline | TN | 5-Aug | Safe D | TN | 5 | ||
| TX | 25 | Lloyd Doggett | Dr. Donna Campbell | TX | 13-Apr | Safe D | TX | 25 | ||||
| VA | 8 | Jim Moran | Patrick Murray | VA | 8-Jun | Safe D | VA | 8 | ||||
| WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Elliot "Spike" Maynard | WV | 11-May | Safe D | WV | 3 | ||||
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