Posted on 06/15/2010 3:16:55 PM PDT by neverdem
The GOP is going to pick up 8 seats in NY alone. The reason I predict this is that most pundits are putting NY20 in #8 place (see keyhouseraces.com) and this NPR survey hits only 7 NY races and doesn’t even include NY20.
Well, Chris Gibson is going to beat Scott Murphy. No doubt whatsoever.
This is a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats 187000 to 125000 (see http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/enrollment/congress/congress_apr10.pdf). Gibson has a great personal story, he’s a really good guy 1 on 1, and he can captivate an audience. I was in Manhattan last night and he gave an electric speech. He is going to be our Congressman come November.
I know why the pundits are ignoring NY20, and that is because they are only looking at the statistics, not the qualitative aspects - the Dems have won 3 elections in a row. However the GOP has run problematic candidates (2006 Sweeney - domestic violence; 2008 Treadwell - lacklustre; 2009 Tedisco - interloper). With the GOP running a quality, district-appropriate home-grown candidate this time, it won’t even be close.
If the Democrats are not including NY20 in their losses, that would indicate they have hit the snooze bar again. It’s going to be even worse than this survey predicts.
For this poll, Bolger and Greenberg chose the districts where incumbents are considered the most vulnerable, and, in the case of open seats, the ones most likely to switch party control in November. Sixty are currently held by Democrats -- many of whom won these seats even when voters in the same district preferred Republican John McCain for president in 2008. The other 10 districts are the flip side -- held by Republicans in the House, even though their voters went for Barack Obama in 2008. These are this year's swing seats -- the political terrain where the battle for control of the House of Representatives will be won or lost. In this battleground, voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent.
If NPR is admitting to 70, the Democrats are screwed.
Only 70?
That’s less than half of the SOBs who voted for Healthcare and less than 25% of all national seats up for re-election this Nov. :(:(:(
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Thanks for the ping!
Or as Obama would say, "all 57 states".
you’re the best, neverdem! thanks for keeping me current!
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