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To: TigerLikesRooster
The author diagnoses the problem well, but then

Remedies

As a rough guide, countries have to engineer a fiscal adjustment of 5 to 12 percent of GDP, and claw back a unit labor cost disadvantage of between 15 and 30 percent, though the precise figures vary by country.

Won't happen.

...unless the deflationary effect is offset by a combination of the following: a continued recovery of world trade; expansionary monetary policy; a lower euro; and expanding domestic demand in Europe’s surplus countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, which are likely to benefit most from a lower euro

Won't really help. An inflationary bubble won't be sustainable and will just create the same credit excess conditions elsewhere. If someone said "hey borrow all these Euros cheap and we will guarantee that you can pay them back cheaper..." I would take those Euros and loan them to Australia at ~6% and count on Australian dollar appreciation (they have lots of resources which are going to be in more demand in an inflationary bubble). Someone else would say "that's a stupid investment choice because the unwind will cause the opposite (Euro will skyrocket against Aussie $, etc)" I would simply respond that the market is telling me to do this and when the unwind happens I will race out the door with everyone else which will make things worse that more quickly, but that's the consequence of malinvestment-inducing market signal.

6 posted on 06/05/2010 5:53:35 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: palmer
This sounds like what the likes of Roubini may want to do. Become a grand master of EU(or world) economy and juggle the whole economic system in the continent, and, presto, problem is gone.

He must have felt that he should create some remedy policy to 'remain credible'(i.e., keep employed.) It is probably just too much for him to tell everybody point-blank that this thing has to run it course and there is not much we can do.

9 posted on 06/05/2010 6:07:21 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: palmer
More remedies:
Based on the experience of the GIIPS, if and when they enter, they must discourage a flood of investment from going into non-tradable sectors and they must maintain large fiscal surpluses

Won't happen without:

Countries with ... tight capital controls have dealt with the dislocation caused by the Great Recession better.

That's basically because domestic politics and interference in the market (e.g. China) can trump the false economic signal from low rates. But the author can't seriously think that China is in good shape, they have huge overcapacity and are unable to spur domestic demand for that capacity. Chinese are instead pouring vast amounts of credit (and capital) into overpriced real estate which will eventually crash and cause their own huge deleveraging. Meanwhile every two-bit local Communist party boss is building a new rivet factory in their district irregardless of the fact that it isn't needed.

11 posted on 06/05/2010 6:08:15 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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