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To: palmer
More remedies:
Based on the experience of the GIIPS, if and when they enter, they must discourage a flood of investment from going into non-tradable sectors and they must maintain large fiscal surpluses

Won't happen without:

Countries with ... tight capital controls have dealt with the dislocation caused by the Great Recession better.

That's basically because domestic politics and interference in the market (e.g. China) can trump the false economic signal from low rates. But the author can't seriously think that China is in good shape, they have huge overcapacity and are unable to spur domestic demand for that capacity. Chinese are instead pouring vast amounts of credit (and capital) into overpriced real estate which will eventually crash and cause their own huge deleveraging. Meanwhile every two-bit local Communist party boss is building a new rivet factory in their district irregardless of the fact that it isn't needed.

11 posted on 06/05/2010 6:08:15 AM PDT by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: palmer
domestic politics and interference in the market (e.g. China) can trump the false economic signal from low rates.

I noticed that some economic honchos are envious of China. Unlike other countries, not only they can print money but also force enterprises to spend it because one way or another all business are on Chinese regime's short leash. However, it is doomed as you said. They cannot spend money efficiently. It will go to party hack's pocket to bankroll their own speculation binge for quick bucks. Even in the best case, it will cause mal-investment to compound overcapacity problem. Actually because of this second problem, their stimulus money cannot be efficient.

Lately, these policy experts are entertaining ever more complicated and infeasible 'solutions,' which can only work in the best possible scenario ever, based on most optimistic assessment. That is, everything should unfold exactly they predicted in time and magnitude. No margin of error.

14 posted on 06/05/2010 6:23:51 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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