Posted on 05/30/2010 1:44:12 AM PDT by ErnstStavroBlofeld
South Korea's ban on trade with North Korea would deliver a "direct blow" to the country's already destitute economy and could jeopardize the struggling Kim Jong-Il regime if China joins sanctions, a think tank here said.
The report came after President Lee Myung-Bak announced that his country would cut all trade links and aid with North Korea and block its commercial ships from sailing through the South's waters as part of countermeasures to the North's submarine attack on the South's warship in March that killed 46 sailors.
The North has consistently achieved a surplus in commercial trade with the South, even excluding aid and government-led economic cooperation projects. The surplus amounted to $333 million in 2009. South Korea buys shellfish, seafood products, sand, zinc, coal and other products from the North, but those imports have been halted under the measures.
"The ban on cross-border trade is expected to bring significant pain to the North Korean government as the country's trade with the South has accounted for up to 38 percent of its total trade volume and makes up 13 percent of its gross domestic product," the state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI) said in a report.
The North has used the hard currency obtained through dealings with the South to buy food, energy, goods and other necessities from China, its biggest trade partner. In 2007, the North earned $534 million in trade surplus with the South and marked a $529 million deficit in trade with China.
"Without cash inflow from the South, the North could not import from China, resulting in the North's decreased foreign trade," the report said. The North's trade deficit with China reached $1.1 billion last year and was $1.3 billion in 2008.
(Excerpt) Read more at east-asia-intel.com ...
Kim il Jung has made two deadly crazy decisions recently.
First was a currency devaluation last year which wiped out the entire savings of the North Korean people.
Now he ordered the torpedo strike, which has ruined what is left of the economy.
Kim will be gone by years end, replaced by a Cuban/Burma style military junta.
I agree
Don’t bet on it. I wouldn’t be surprised if just a non-binding statement is all South Korea will get from the UN, something that would not change China’s trade with North Korea at all.
And as for South Korea’s trade with the North, well they kept the joint industrial complex open and are already backing down on some the measures they announced on Monday so I would not be surprised if the back down on other points too.
China will not cut off its nose, dispite its face...
A fact that will go relatively un-noticed (as much as posible with the aid of the media) when the chips are down...
Sure, we’ll hear about it, but most of the unwashed around the world will not...
I've been hearing that for years yet here he is, sinking submarines and exporting nuclear weapons technology to our enemies who will not be participating in any sanctions btw.
China does not want a tsunami of refugees from NK flooding it’s border areas.
Even now there is very strict border control between the two countries.
Well of course not...It will only get tighter on their border if they are smart...
There is only so much crap, even China can take, and control it can influence on NK...
Everytime its gets bad to worse, things eventually blow over, and everyone forgets about it...
All the aid the South provides to the North is just to feed the military, which will have no qualms about attacking the South. And what has South Korea gained by exploiting cheap labor in the North, nothing but more trouble.
Quick. Get Mexico on the phone to Beijing. Someone needs to tell the Chinese government that their border control policies are clearly racist.
......Kim will be gone by years end, replaced by a Cuban/Burma style military junta......
Unless they find a Claudius quivering behind a drape and force him to take the job
In past days I've read here at FR the opinion that there's no way that NK would have torpedoed that submarine without China's prior consent.
Just WHAT is China attempting to gain by not agreeing to sanctions, and is it possible that China ordered the attack on the submarine, and if so, to what end?
Is this really, as some freepers have suggested, some type of asymetrial warfare attempt to drag the USA & Japan into bankrupting focus upon the Koreas whilst China quietly goes its own way, intentionally remaining uninvolved???
The disgusting hypocrisy that passes for intelligent discourse is so beyond the pale, I see no chance for any sort of rational discussion.
morning Carley.
“there is very strict border control between the two countries”
Something maybe we should study?
How do the chi-coms achieve border security?
Shoot em or deport them back from whence they came.
An you know it isn’t a fun deal being sent BACK to n.korea.
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