[Hawthorn]

>> Your thoughts? <<

We're definitely approaching new territory. The ten-day moving average for the Rasmussen Index dropped again this morning, now down to -15.10. It hasn't been that low since March 25. In other words, the lift Big Ø got from the health takeover vote looks to be just about totally kaput.

By the way, I use the word "approaching" above because the historic low for the ten-day moving average of the Index was -17.70. This level was reached on March 19 and March 20, that is, just before the final health takeover vote. When the ten-day average breaks thru the "support level" of -17.70, then I'll be prepared to say we're definitely into new territory.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Obama's "strongly approve" number is definitely slipping, which is largely driving his downward trend. Apparently, the honeymoon with his base that he enjoyed after the health scare bill was passed is wearing off. There appears to be upward movement on his "strongly disapprove," but it's lagging behind the other, and I'd give it a few more days to stabilise before saying whether it's a blip, a definite upward movement, or an upward movement to a new plateau of hopeychangey badness.

[dalight]

By the way, I use the word "approaching" above because the historic low for the ten-day moving average of the Index was -17.70. This level was reached on March 19 and March 20, that is, just before the final health takeover vote. When the ten-day average breaks thru the "support level" of -17.70, then I'll be prepared to say we're definitely into new territory.

Honestly, this is really bad news for Obama because this should be going up to his relative peak. Which tends to be a 4-6 point spread peak to trough. Or it may indicate that Rassmussen has changed the sampling order.. But, assuming not. This could presage a -21 or lower bottom 8+ days from now.