>> Obama’s “strongly approve” number is definitely slipping, which is largely driving his downward trend. <<
Yep. After the health takeover vote, the SA’s began rising, and the ten-day average reached a peak on April 7, at 31.6%. But now, the number has fallen to 26.8%. So in round numbers, the range has been ca. 5%.
In the meantime, over the same period, the ten-day average for the SD’s has never been higher than 42.00%, and never lower than 39.6%. Today it stands at 41.9%. So the range, again in round numbers, has been only ca. 2%
Therefore, if we use the above ranges as proxies for “solidity of conviction,” the SA’s appear twice as “mushy” or twice as “fickle” or twice as “uncertain” as the SD’s — certainly an excellent sign!
(For the statisticians out there: I think it’s also plausible to measure “mushiness” by standard deviations and coefficients of variation. But according to my calculations, the basic answer is always about the same: The SA’s are approximately twice as uncertain in their convictions as are the SD’s.)
>> Apparently, the honeymoon with his base that he enjoyed after the health scare bill was passed is wearing off.<<
Absolutely!
>> There appears to be upward movement on his “strongly disapprove” <<
Wish I could agree, but sorry to say that a quick glance at the data doesn’t persaude. Still hoping, however, to see such a trend later!
(I guess one could run some linear regressions and compare the correlation coefficients and/or t-scores for the regression coefficients, to examine whether there’s evidence of a trend over various time periods. But I really doubt the outcome would be positive, at least not for the time being.)