Replies

I can answer the question on how well Frémont did. He carried 11 states for a total of 114 EVs (with 33% of the vote, far below McCain). Had Millard Fillmore gotten out of the race and endorsed the GOP ticket (he placed a respectable 3rd), Frémont would have actually won the national vote (with nearly 55% of the vote), but he still would have lost the electoral college, adding just CA, IL & NJ to his column (which would’ve been 152-136 in Buchanan’s favor). The 1856 race actually resembled (in actual vote breakdown) more like the 1992 Clinton-GHW Bush-Perot one.

Frémont more than likely would’ve faced the same problems as Buchanan and had he aggressively pursued abolitionism, probably would’ve sped up the onset of secession by 1857/1858, or the Democrat-majority Congress would’ve tried to impeach him. To Buchanan’s credit (with respect to a last ditch effort to save the Union), he at least (in 1860) cleared out his cabinet of all the Southern sympathizers, but too little too late. He was in a terrible bind having to hold together a fracturing Democrat majority, and in a no-win situation. I’m not nearly as hard on him as many other historians are.

There really is no realistic scenario of Fremont being elected President in 1856. There was a very realistic chance of Seward being elected, however, and I think his more moderate and solicitous treatment of the South could have easily avoided a bloody Civil War.

I can answer the question on how well Frémont did. He carried 11 states for a total of 114 EVs (with 33% of the vote, far below McCain).

I never considered McCain to be a conservative. But even comparing with McCain, Frémont did better. Frémont carried 38.5% of the electoral vote while McCain carried only 32.2%.

I've been very critical of Buchanan. Obviously there was no easy solution maybe there's nothing he could have done but he next to jack to prevent the war and because of that has to be one the worst 19th Century Presidents.

Had Millard Fillmore gotten out of the race and endorsed the GOP ticket (he placed a respectable 3rd), Frémont would have actually won the national vote (with nearly 55% of the vote), but he still would have lost the electoral college,

And on the flip side in 1860, If Lincoln was opposed by only 1 opponent who got the combined votes of Bell, Douglas and Breckenridge that opponent would have won the popular vote 60-40 and still lost, Lincoln's only plurality states were CA and OR, not enough to deprive him of an electoral college majority. Imagine that.