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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (Hooboy , Are we going to hear about it now)
NSIDC ^ | May 21, 2010

Posted on 05/21/2010 4:13:26 AM PDT by gusopol3

link only


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: arctic; globalwarming
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Just so no one is surprised in debates with global warming enthusiasts. There will proably be alot more AlGore sightings, too.
1 posted on 05/21/2010 4:13:26 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3
Yesterday AG was smoozing with Bloomy in NYC to celebrate a 'green' skyscraper, LOL!

prisoner6

2 posted on 05/21/2010 4:18:11 AM PDT by prisoner6 (Right Wing Nuts are holding The Constitution together as the Loose Screws of The Left come undone!)
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To: gusopol3

How can you have an average +/-2 std. dev shown as a single line. That would be shown as a band.


3 posted on 05/21/2010 4:19:47 AM PDT by bossmechanic (If all else fails, hit it with a hammer)
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To: gusopol3

Its within the average of what they say is average.


4 posted on 05/21/2010 4:20:27 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: gusopol3

Take a look at this more detailed information and graphs...something doesn’t add up.

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic


5 posted on 05/21/2010 4:21:25 AM PDT by Aussiebabe
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To: cripplecreek

Well, the dotted green line is the plot from 2007, which had led to the speculation that the arctic might be ice free in summer 2008, which of course was scare tactic they were tryint ti infuse into 2008 election cycle. The subsequent 2 summers did not show as dramatic decline, and in fact, the witer ice pack had approached the longer term average for the first time in several years. So , whatever it is truly worth, this data will be used to furher the global warming hypothesis. And at a politically sensitive time, if they try to ram through cap and trade or carbon tax. It all depends on whether it’s a hot summer in the northeast.


6 posted on 05/21/2010 4:27:49 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Here’s another look since 2002 —this time of year, it is all bunched up.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm


7 posted on 05/21/2010 4:28:05 AM PDT by Aussiebabe
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To: Aussiebabe

Thanks, you and I have discussed how they’ve seemed to wiggle that line around in the past. Still a little time for the red line to pull up out of its screaming dive.


8 posted on 05/21/2010 4:32:04 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3

Is this as accurate as the ‘hockey stick’ graph?


9 posted on 05/21/2010 4:33:41 AM PDT by Mr. K (This administration IS WEARING OUT MY CAPSLOCK KEY!)
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To: gusopol3

Can we read graphs? Can we understand elementary statistics?

The graph says the difference in the curves is likely to be a statistical zero.

Notice that the upper curve is an average composite of 1979 to 2000, and that 2007 and 2010 are presently coincident.

But more importantly notice 2010 is within the 2 sigma band of the the 1979 - 2000 average, meaning at the present the ice extent are statistically the same as in the years 1979 - 2000.

Then as scientists we need to ask about measurement error and the improvement of measurement instrumentation in the last 30 years that these measurements were taken.

And finally we should notice that if there is any real broad based trend, then it looks as if 2010 is trending away from 2007 back to the 1979 - 2000 average.

But I would think a statistical test would show there is no real trend, that the changes are within statistical variation. If there was a statistical test, I would like to see the data assumptions, the statistical model and the critical levels of the test before I allowed any results to be considered admissible.


10 posted on 05/21/2010 4:35:49 AM PDT by Hostage
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To: bossmechanic

There is a faint light gray band. Take another look. But 2010 is within the band so the graph is much ado about nothing.


11 posted on 05/21/2010 4:36:57 AM PDT by Hostage
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To: gusopol3

Heat from the Earth escapes at the poles. Ice is an insulator. Less ice —> more heat loss.


12 posted on 05/21/2010 4:39:46 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

Do you believe that trumps the argument, more snow and ice cover, more sunlight reflected back into space?


13 posted on 05/21/2010 4:48:03 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3
Why only +/- one standard deviation? That's only what, 68% of the readings fall in it? Why not the usual 2 or 3 standard deviations? (95% of readings to 99% IIRC) Probably because that would extend the band to cover recent readings and reduce the "visual impact" of the chart. Never mind that little thing call science.

Just how variable is the data for any given month?

Also, why are they only going back to 1979? Is there more data available? Was this range "cherry picked" to show what they wanted to show? What is the sensitivity of the graph to different ranges, more or less data?

In other words, I'd like a complete scientific report, not a propaganda chart.

14 posted on 05/21/2010 4:49:53 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (obama out now! I'll keep my money, my guns, and my freedom - you can keep the change.)
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To: Aussiebabe

You notice how the decline in sea ice is between April and late September?

Hmmmmm..... let me see.... what time of year is that???

Oh, That’s right!.. it’s SPRING AND SUMMER!

What a surprise!!! NOT!


15 posted on 05/21/2010 4:50:55 AM PDT by Bigh4u2 (Denial is the first requirement to be a liberal)
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To: gusopol3

It’s dark much of the year. I have no idea exactly how the quantification of that works out, but if there is no ice in the Winter, there will be.


16 posted on 05/21/2010 4:51:04 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Hostage

If this theme is one AP radio is able to pound on drive-time headline news day after day in conjunction with above average summer temps in the northeast, it won’t matter how sophisticated the statistical analysis, the politics will sway back toward global warming, just as the snowy northeast winter swayed public opinion the other way this past winter.


17 posted on 05/21/2010 4:53:04 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: gusopol3
As caretakers, yes, man can affect the quality of his environment w/ regards to pollution.

However, no way can many impact climate change. Do the math and research the records.

Funny, sad, and deplorable that libtards commie socialists cannot control Mother Nature, the solar system, nor God's plan.

The veins pop out on their necks as their faces turn beet red because of this.

Their BS cushy goobermint dole income (they call jobs) are at stake and they know it.

18 posted on 05/21/2010 5:18:00 AM PDT by RSmithOpt (Liberalism: Highway to Hell)
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To: Mr. K

THE HOKEY STICK.............


19 posted on 05/21/2010 5:26:19 AM PDT by Red Badger (When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you'll know that its desolation is NEAR. Luke 21)
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To: Hostage
What do you think EPA used to declare carbon dioxide a pollutant? Wasn't it the arctic melting that endangered the polar bears' habitat? Come on coach, you're drawing up plays on the chalk board while the game in on!
20 posted on 05/21/2010 5:28:12 AM PDT by gusopol3
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