Posted on 05/20/2010 7:56:48 AM PDT by FTJM
The myth in the California Senate race is that Tom Campbell has corralled the moderate/left votes, and Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore are splitting the conservative vote between them. In this myth, DeVore, as the lower-polling candidate, functions as a “spoiler” for Fiorina — who would otherwise win with a united conservative base behind her.
As with all myths, this one is wholly false.
Of the major polls taken on CA-Sen in the past 90 days, only five of them explicitly polled on ideological identification: Rasmussen, two SurveyUSA polls, LAT/USC, and Field. A survey of those five polls reveals the following:
1) The ideological breakdowns among the CA-Sen candidates broadly follow the overall polling breakdowns.
2) Tom Campbell, contrary to myth, has his base in self-identified conservatives, and leads among them — even in categories in which he is antagonistic toward the ideological position, such as pro-lifers and gun owners.
3) There is little evidence of movement from one candidate to another, and hence of any “spoiler” role. The only such evidence is found in the SurveyUSA polls, in which Fiorina losses are almost exactly matched by DeVore gains; if sustained in other data sets, this arguably makes Fiorina a “spoiler” for DeVore, but not vice-versa.
The bottom line is that the DeVore-as-spoiler myth is a falsehood perpetrated by an increasingly worried and anxious Fiorina campaign that is already seeking to cast blame for its failures on third parties. There is no data to support it.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Amen, bro!
DeVore will still come in 3rd.
I don’t like it when anyone says people should get out of a primary race. Let all three of them go at it. The winner will be tested and stronger for it.
DeVore is still rising. He is doing a lot of good things in this race but still suffers from name recognition. Carly is a deeply flawed candidate who has spent millions and gotten little for it. She also has twice the negatives of Campbell and DeVore. She is also losing the womens vote and the conservative vote. What I hate is the attempt to hold him down by saying he can’t win. This is a primary and all serious conservatives should vote for the serious conservative. Fight the fight out of strength and with faith because each of us are arbiters of history. If we let media, polls, and money control our votes then we will never win but will only be delaying losing. Rand Paul won in Kentucky I wish he and other outsider conservatives would stand with DeVore in these last days before the primary because money should not be an excuse when we come up short on election day. Sharron Angle and DeVore had a fundraiser last night. That is what we need. Stop being watchers get out there and change things. That is what the left has done. Do we not want to turn them back or do we not really love this country?
Fiorina stands for nothing, which is why Republicans like her.
There's no argument that she screwed up the reputation of a veritable innovator (HP), so she can only run on opposition to Boxer and whatever line of crap she can sell.
From PPIC polling today:
Fiorina 25%
Campbell 23%
DeVore 16%
Asking her the fronrunner to bow out?
Hey, what universe does Erickson live in?
It’s far from over. An example would be the Crist Rubio race. Crist was up after he changed parties, within 2 weeks Rubio was well in the lead again.
Oh I agree - I’m just looking at the political reality in CA. This is definitely not Florida.
But, but, but she has “friends”.
shhhhhh,,,, don’t wan’t to point out real things to mythologists.
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