2010 & 2011 predictions: Pray hard that these are wrong

First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'…the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications …(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.

Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.

In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2000

Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.

July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.

2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."

Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.

A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market–currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity–headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.

(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)

Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month

"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."

There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out. The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of firesale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.

Going into 2010, the trends seemed to lead nowhere or towards oblivion. Geo-politically, the Middle East was and is trending towards some sort of military clash, most likely by mid-year, but perhaps sooner…At the moment, it seems 2010 is shaping up to be a year of absolute chaos. We see trends for war between Israel and her neighbors that will shake every facet of human activity…In the event of war, we see all other societal trends being thoroughly disrupted…Iran will most likely shut off the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf. This will have immense consequences for the world’s economy.

Oil prices will skyrocket into the stratosphere and become so expensive that world’s economies will collapse..There are also trend indicators along economic lines that point to the potential for a total meltdown of the world’s financial system with major crisis points developing with the change of each quarter of the year. 2010 could be a meltdown year for the world’s economy, regardless of what goes on in the Middle East.

I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.

You didn’t think that through. To start with, this posits a currency split, in which electronic money becomes very difficult to spend, because retailers refuse it, possibly with national bank holidays lasting weeks or months. A million dollars in the bank is worthless.

In that situation, cash is already deflated by 95% solely by shortage. There just isn’t more cash and coins, nor can there be in short order. So a 1 for 10 cash redenomination-deflation is only going to relieve the de facto shortage, while plastic coins can be minted to take up the slack.

The problem in the Great Depression was that there was no cash or coins, either, and considerable inflation was needed just to get it into the marketplace. The government needed to literally, not just figuratively, print money. But they did not for far too long.

Right now, the vast majority of US paper money is $1 bills, about 45% of all US paper money. But most people’s typical retail is in the $10 - $100 range. With an official 1 for 10 deflation, this makes a $50 purchase cost $5, and means a lot more people can make purchases just because there are far more $1 bills.

In effect, it is redenomination, to counter deflation. It buys time until electronic transfers can be reestablished to some extent, likely in the form of debit instead of credit.

A combination of factors. To begin with, bank holidays, cash runs, and the failure of credit card bond issues.

There was already one issue failure, last November, which unnerved the cc companies. Without these bonds, there is no way the cc companies could underwrite the vast amount of monthly debt from cardholders. A few failures in a row would force them to cancel millions of cards.

Unfortunately, millions of people are dependent on their credit cards, and live a “month behind” in their income. Being instantly broke, yet still owing their debt, there would likely be a huge jump in bank check overdrafts.

One or both, joined with bank failures and holidays would almost certainly cause a cash run on the banks, stripping them of cash in minutes or hours, so they could only do electronic transfers.

Very few businesses have automatic check withdrawl, that along with overdrafts would quickly force them to abandon credit cards and checks.

Unfortunately, out of several possible cascades resulting in this catastrophe, real causative factors are less important than public panic, which is far less predictable. But because there is such a profound physical cash shortage in the US right now, we are facing an instant crisis, much like the almost catastrophe on Sept 15, 2008.

To begin with, bank holidays, cash runs, and the failure of credit card bond issues.

People are using less cash, not more and more electronic money, not less. And why would there be bank holidays?

There was already one issue failure, last November, which unnerved the cc companies.

I hadn't heard that. Who had an issue fail?

A few failures in a row would force them to cancel millions of cards.

How would that make my electronic money worthless?

so they could only do electronic transfers.

Yeah, electronic money.

Very few businesses have automatic check withdrawl

What's that?

that along with overdrafts

Customer overdrafts?

would quickly force them to abandon credit cards and checks

I think they'd be more likely to accept credit cards (debit cards too, electronic money again).

But because there is such a profound physical cash shortage in the US right now

It sounds like you imagine a time in the recent past when physical cash was above some magical % of all money when all was well. What was the magic % and what year was the last when there was no such "shortage"?

As far as the rest of your questions, they almost look automatically generated.

How would that work?

Not my problem.

LOL!

Ping me when we have the first bank holiday. Then maybe your fantasy will come true.

But because there is such a profound physical cash shortage in the US right now

Maybe you can automatically generate an answer to this? LOL!

The credit card bond failure was in November, 2008.

October 2008.

That's all you have? CC companies couldn't sell bonds at the height of the panic? When no one could?

That's why electronic money will become worthless?

That's funny.

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