Posted on 04/23/2010 10:34:25 PM PDT by SeattleBruce
…it’s overwhelmingly likely that DeVore has increased his support by 50% in the last month. I was looking over some of the Senate Polling from RCP this afternoon and when I got to the CA Republican primary I saw something that sparked my interest. Chuck DeVore has had a sustained surge in support in the latest rounds of polling.
So what does a 4-5 point surge in support actually mean? What can we really take away from these polls, and how trust worthy is the information we are getting?
The polls themselves - specifically the SUSA and Capitol Weekly - don’t appear to be bad to me, granted I am not a polling expert. Both seem to have a decent size pool and both are of likely voters. This isn’t to say that these polls are faultless, just that their faults fall within what one would expect.
Let’s walk through these a bit and I will explain a.) why I believe the momentum is shifting in this race and b.) why Chuck DeVore needs your support today more than ever.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Ping
Let’s hope. It would be nice to have at least one true conservative in high elected office in CA.
I support Chuck, and I’m a California voter.
bump
I’m a California voter, and I support whomever can defeat Boxer.
“I support Chuck, and I’m a California voter.”
I am a registered Republican, so I will be able to vote in the GOP (”closed”*) Primary for DeVore.”
I will then vote in the General for the Republican candidate that won the Primary.
* Closed to registered dems, but open to independents.
Just a little historical perspective.
In 1992, the Democrat Senator Alan Cranston left public life, thereby leaving the seat open.
Barbara Boxer was the Democrat nominee.
On the GOP side, it was a fight between Bruce Hershensohn and a relatively unknown. Hershensohn won the nomination and lost...giving us the Box.
Can you name the person Hershensohn defeated for the GOP nomination?
Without looking it up, I'm tempted to say Ed Zschau. Or perhaps it was Tom Campbell.
Tom “liberal RINO” Campbell lost the primary fight to Bruce but there was a third candidate taking over 10 percent of the GOP primary vote.
He was then Palm Springs Mayor and future Congressman Sonny Bono.
I support Chuck and I am a California (True Conservative) voter!! Boxer has to GO!!
“Tom “liberal RINO” Campbell lost the primary fight to Bruce but there was a third candidate taking over 10 percent of the GOP primary vote.”
At least the 18 years of liberalism from that California Senate seat was from a Democrat, rather than someone who calls himself a Republican. Also, it’s probably worth noting that Bruce lost that Senate race to boxer by something like 3 points, and that was in 1992...a TERRIBLE YEAR for Republicans throughout the country.
Eric at Red State pretty regularly creates these “momentum” stories in an effort to generate money and enthusiasm for his favored candidates. I like DeVore and he would probably be my candidate if I lived in California. But he doesn’t really have any momentum. Eric is the new Hugh Hewitt.
“Eric at Red State pretty regularly creates these “momentum” stories in an effort to generate money and enthusiasm for his favored candidates. I like DeVore and he would probably be my candidate if I lived in California. But he doesn’t really have any momentum. Eric is the new Hugh Hewitt.”
I hear you. However, Republican Primary voters in California generally don’t pay much attention to the races until late, sometimes very late, and then they notice that one of the candidates is conservative. That was what happened with Bruce - it was supposed to be a coronation for Campbell...but then people noticed Bruce and he came out of nowhere to win the nomination. You guys still have something like 6 weeks...anything can happen.
BUMP for Chuck DeVore!
Bill Simon's run fit that pattern too.
“overwhelmingly likely?”
“overwhelmingly likely?”
Don’t misunderestimate ‘overwhelmingly likely!’ ;)
He went from 8% to 12% ?
Or I think 9 to 14%..
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