Posted on 04/06/2010 2:51:26 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
N.Korea 'Could Attack South to Cover Internal Crisis'
North Korea could attempt to provoke the South prior to the G20 summit in Seoul in November in an effort to divert attention from its deepening domestic crisis, experts speculated Monday at a seminar on the G20 summit and security in the Korean Peninsula organized by the Institute for National Security Strategy. The seminar comes amid suspicions that North Korea may have been involved in the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan in a mysterious explosion on March 26.
Brian Myers, a professor at Dogseo University in Busan, said North Korea is unlikely to sabotage the G20 summit or commit a provocation disgracing the host, but recalled that Pyongyang bombed KAL flight No. 858 just prior to the 1988 Seoul Olympics and killed four South Korean sailors in a naval skirmish during the 2002 football World Cup.
"Kim Jong-il has lost confidence in his health and the 2012 deadline for achieving 'a great, prosperous and powerful nation' approaches, so he is obsessed with paving the way for his heir," said international security ambassador Nam Joo-hong said. "The North will pursue the contradictory paths of improving relations with the U.S. on the one hand and threatening the South on the other." He added provocations cannot be ruled out.
Choi Dae-suk, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said, "If North Korea was involved in the sinking of the Cheonan, the damage to inter-Korean relations would be tremendous." He warned that since this year marks the 60th anniversary of the Korean War, Pyongyang could seek to create military tension along the demilitarized zone.
To prevent the worst-case scenario, Myers proposed offering the North strategic concessions. Nam said that the G20 summit needs to come up with a "Seoul consensus" over the security problem.
P!
To paraphrase Patton, ‘they have every reason not to do it. Therefore, I think they will.’
Bring it on! We'll kick their butts like we did them damnyankees!!!!!
No no, it’s ok. The United Nations will allow it. And now that we have a reasonable, progressive man in the White House, we might even help!
Of course. North Korea sank the Cheongsan and probably the fishing boat that joined in the hunt for survivors.
This attitude CAUSES incidents. Offer a quid pro quo and if the quo side likes the quid then it will produce more quo.
Are you taking into account the probably reactions of this President Soetoro? You understand that he hates countries that are so unenlightened as to ally with the USA and has tremendous compassion for the countries that claim grievances against the USA.
He might not like helping SK, but we've got a lot of soldiers stationed there. He can't write them off without arousing a firestorm at home.
Kim Jong-il’s starving North Korea to the point of armed insurrection and needs an external threat to take the heat off. The problem is an external threat might drive his army to the point of armed insurrection, and they’re better armed than the populace. When EVERYONE wants you dead, it narrows your options.
No, but he can pull them out ostentatiously when things get dicey.
South Korea can probably handle it OK on their own—if the Chinese don’t get involved. And if they do, I’m not sure it can be handled with our help, either. But, China is getting rich and happy with the current situation. They don’t like Kim all that much either. He serves some proxy irritant functions with his weapons exporting program, but they keep him strictly quarantined.
Maybe he’ll toss one of his great nukes on the G20.
The O man is not going to like getting up at 3:AM for anything.
A whole other topic. I agree with your analysis of this one completely. All of the signals have been given.
With “The Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey” as President this may be the North’s opportunity.
With our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, what the heck are we going to kick him with?
I know the South Koreans would kick some scrawny Nork behind... but will the US be there in the numbers necessary to be a significant help?
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