Obama Camp Has Three Candidates to Replace Justice Stevens

nymag.com ^ | April 4, 2010 | Adam K. Raymond

[The Pack Knight]

If Obama nominates someone really objectionable, I expect a filibuster. If Stevens waits until next year to retire, which I think is likely, then the Republicans will have enough votes to filibuster even with a couple defections. If he retires now with the animosity over the health care fiasco still fresh, they can probably keep everyone on board for a filibuster until next year.

The Democrats will have two options - the nuclear option, or, what I think is more likely, the first recess appointment to the Supreme Court since Eisenhower appointed Brennan. If that happens and Obama loses in 2012, we could also see the first Supreme Court recess appointment to be rejected by the Senate since John Rutledge, who was appointed by Washington.

This will get interesting, especially if another seat opens up. While Ginsburg seems to be doing well despite her pancreatic cancer, I would be surprised if she doesn’t retire before the 2012 election.

[wideminded]

It’s amazing there’s a guy with a decisive vote on the Supreme Court who actually saw Babe Ruth play.

C-SPAN did interviews with all the living justices (except Souter) recently. It was quite clear that Stevens still possessed a remarkably sharp mind despite his advanced age. I wondered if this has something to do with the fact that he appears to have been extremely intelligent as a younger person.

[Arthur McGowan]

The one who owns a string of Partial-Birth Abortion clinics will have the edge.

[The Pack Knight]

I think it depends on whether he wants to provoke a fight in the Senate. He has a good chance at avoiding a filibuster with Garland, which is why I think Obama will probably go with him.

Even Specter voted against Kagan for Solicitor General, on the other hand. A fight to confirm a justice as liberal as Kagan isn’t something the Democrats want before this year’s elections, and it’s a fight they’re more likely to lose after the election when the Republicans will have a largely defection-proof filibuster.

[freespirited]

Kagan is a woman, and she’s Jewish, so she fills two categories at the same time. Also she’s never been married and has no kids, so she may be gay

I think that's pretty common knowledge.

Appointing another Jew to the court would probably help Obama heal whatever rift has developed over his policies towards Israel.

I think it will take more than appointing a Jewish person to an important position. That does nothing for Israel.

She won’t be filibustered.

There were quite a few no votes when she was up for solicitor general. I think Obama would do better to pick Garland and get a 100-0 confirmation than a lopsided vote for Kagan. She has no record as a judge but she does have a record of doing/saying stupid things.