Posted on 04/01/2010 1:03:56 PM PDT by lbryce
In the coming decades China will likely surpass United States as the world’s biggest economy. That may seem strange and uncomfortable to many Americans, but it wouldn’t be the first time China dominated the global economy.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Factblog has posted a fascinating set of statistics showing the evolution of the Chinese economy, compiled by economic historian Angus Maddison
The chart above shows the percentage of the world’s economy contributed by China during the last two centuries. As you can see, China held a far bigger share of the world’s economy in 1820 than it does today. From the early 19th century until the mid-20th century, China’s share of global output fell steadily, troughing at about 4 percent of world G.D.P. in the 1960s.
The United States, on the other hand, constituted a mere pittance of world output in the early days of the republic, and then grew steadily up until the Great Depression. It shot up during World War II, and then began to decline and eventually flatten out over the subsequent decades
(Excerpt) Read more at economix.blogs.nytimes.com ...
While remaining stillborn, the statistical reality of America as global also-ran looms gargantun an ominoua Sword of Damocles for us all, the wrenching reprecussions not boding wel for us, but most fundamentally not boding well for the world, future of humanity itself.
Well other than the fact that commies lie about most everything, I doubt it. Slave labor only gets you so far.
. . .but the NYTimes is positively drooling over the prospect.
The lesson I would take is you can be one of the top dogs one period but if you do not have the flexibility freedom provides you can go into decline when times change or intentionally, as with Imperial China, implement policies that are determiantial to growth.
The lesson I take from the US graph is that if you want to be the dominant economic power in the world, hope that all the major economies on the planet engage in a cataclysmic war while none of your infrastructure is touched.
Good point although I was looking at the bigger picture, hee hee. :)
We’ve seen this movie before...anyone remember Japan in the 80’s? Where are they now?
One big difference, in the 80s, we had Reagan.
And for the way China has hurt us, I've chosen the word prophylactic with great care and deliberation.
Ah yes, it’s fine when the Democrats do it.
If you think Japan = China, think again.
Japan is a small country with limited resources.
China is a huge country with vast resources, and thus has a far greater potential for growth.
You’re comparing apples and oranges.
The real news here is that the NYT will be bankrupt before China catches the USA in GDP. Passing slanted fiction as news, firing staffers while doubling C-level exec’s salary — all in the worst advertising environment since GD1 — good luck with that.
I have been to China several times over the past twenty years, both in the big urban centers and way, way out in the boonies, and I am convinced that there is only one reason China does not dominate the world economically; it is the idiot system of government it has.
If the Chinese can get rid of that obstacle, then watch out!
Hint: Read Revelation 18.
Almost all of China’s growth thus far has come from exports to rich countries. They can only maintain this today by keeping their currency artificially low which requires them to build up massive foreign currency reserves which they cannot use unless they are willing to let their currency float, which in turn would kill their exports and tank their economy.
China has created massive imbalances in it’s economy in its quest for growth and eventually the chickens will come home to roost. The notion that they will all of a sudden begin to grow based on internal demand is sheer folly. Without exports they can’t grow.
I think China is nearing the limits of growth with its current model and unfortunately they have not demonstrated the ability to do anything else. They don’t innovate and they have very immature institutions. They are a low cost manufacturer, that’s it. In order to get to the next level they will need to deal with the imbalances they’ve created and I think that will require a very long period of adjustment, perhaps 10 or 20 years. Maybe on the other side of that adjustment period they will then be able to continue their growth.
I believe that India will overtake China as an economic power in the next 20 years, and become the predominant economic power in Asia (and potentially the world).
An expanded Russia will become the dominant player (by far) in Europe, and will sit number 2 or 3 as far as economic power goes. China will be 1 then fall to 2 when India reaches that level. In the end, it will be China, Russia, then the US, with India being a wild card.
One really can’t predict what the world will look like 30-40 years from now.
It would be like telling a British person in the year 1910 that the Empire would decline into a second rate little country by 1950. No one could’ve predicted that.
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