Posted on 03/29/2010 8:36:51 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
Here is an update to the Vulnerable House Democrats - Master List that was posted yesterday on this thread.
It is still a work in progress but at least we are making progress. Comments on any our choices are welcomed and we are particularly interested in who we should be favoring in the various Primaries. We need good strong conservatives who can win in November.
The Chart has grown large enough that I'm posting it in two parts. Note that Names with a * in front of the name represents a Freeper Endorsement. We need more of those from everyone to help sort out the mad scramble of the Republican Primaries. The little pink box on some lines tell us that there are more than just the 3 candidates listed that are running. Those listed may or may not be the best. We need help sorting that out. It is, at this point the most critical need we have.
The Leans R etc. data is from Larry Sabato, ElectionProjection.com and CQPolitics.com. There are some blanks that I will fill in for the next update.
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Awesome effort here!
It’s all in flux until November.
Give me some feedback. How does it look? To narrow? Too wide? What do you think?
Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List | Page 1 of 2 | 3-Apr-10 | |||||||||||||
District | Dem Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | ALL | Primary | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | RCP | District | |||
AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Rick Barber | Martha Roby | Stephanie Bell | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Lean D | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | |
AR | 1 | Open D (Marion Berry) | Rick Crawford | Princella Smith | AR | 18-May | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Toss-Up | Leans R | AR | 1 | ||
AR | 2 | Open D (Vic Snyder) | Tim Griffin | Scott Wallace | AR | 18-May | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Lean R | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||
AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | Likely D | Weak D | Lean D | Leans D | AZ | 1 | |
AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Lean D | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 | |
AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | *Jesse Kelly | Jonathan Paton | Andy Goss | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Lean D | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 | |
CA | 3 | Dem Primary Winner | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Leans R | Likely R | CA | 3 | |||
CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | *David Harmer | Tony Amador | Brad Goehring | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Lean D | Leans D | CA | 11 | |
CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | *Van Tran | Katherine Smith | Tan Nguyen | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Safe D | Likely D | CA | 47 | |
CO | 3 | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Lean D | Toss-Up | CO | 3 | ||
CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | |
CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Tom Herrmann | Dan Debicella | Rob Merkle | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Leans D | CT | 4 | |
CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
DE | AL | Open R (Castle) | Fred Cullis | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | DE | AL | ||
FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | *Dan Fanelli | Todd Long | Kurt Kelly | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | FL | 8 | |
FL | 12 | Open R ( Putman ) | Dennis Ross | Baxter Troutman | John Lindsey, Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Likely R | FL | 12 | ||
FL | 22 | Ron Klein | *Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | FL | 22 | |||
FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Ed Dedelow | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | |
FL | 25 | Open R (Diaz-Balart ) | David Rivera | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | FL | 25 | |||
GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | *Mac Collins | Valerie Meyers | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | GA | 8 | |
HI | 1 | Open (Abercrombie -D) | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Likely D | HI | 1 | |||
IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaaun | Pat Bertroche | Dave Funk | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Lean D | Toss-Up | IA | 3 | |
ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | *Michael Chadwick | Raul Labrador | Vaughn Ward | ID | 25-May | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | |
IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | *Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | IL | 8 | |||
IL | 10 | Open R (Kirk) | *Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | *Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Leans D | IL | 11 | |||
IL | 14 | Bill Foster | *Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Lean D | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | |||
IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | Likely R | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | IN | 2 | |||
IN | 8 | Open D (Brad Ellsworth) | John Lee Smith | John Snyder Jr. | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | IN | 8 | |
IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Mike Sodrel | Todd Young | Travis Hankins | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | |
KS | 3 | Open D (Dennis Moore) | Patricia Lightner | Nick Jordan | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | Likely R | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | KS | 3 | |
LA | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Toss-Up | Likely D | LA | 2 | |||
LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Nickie Monica | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | LA | 3 | |
MA | 10 | Open D (Bill Delahunt) | *Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | |
MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans R | MD | 1 | |
MI | 1 | Bart Stupak | * Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Linda Goldthorpe | MI | 3-Aug | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | MI | 1 | |
MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | *Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Mike Stahly | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | MI | 7 | |
MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Andrew Raczowski | Paul Welday | Gene Goodman | MI | 3-Aug | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | MI | 9 | |
MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Jim Hagedom | Jim Engstrand | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | MN | 1 | |
MN | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Lean D | Leans D | MO | 4 | |
MS | 1 | Travis Childers | *Alan Nunnelee | Angela McGlowan | Henry Ross | MS | 1-Jun | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | |
NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Tim C’Annunzio | Harold Jordan | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Leans D | Leans D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | NC | 8 | |
ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | *Rick Berg | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans R | ND | AL | ||||
Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List | Page 2 of 2 | 3-Apr-10 | |||||||||||||
District | Dem Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | ALL | Primary | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | RCP | District | |||
NE | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | *Frank Guinta | Bob Bestani | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Leans R | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | NH | 1 | |
NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | *Jennifer Horn | Bob Giuda | Charlie Bass | NH | 14-Sep | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | NH | 2 | |
NJ | 3 | John Adler | *Jon Runyan | Joseph Rullo | Maurice Hill | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | NJ | 3 | |
NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Alan Woodruff | Jerry Scott | NM | 1-Jun | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Toss-Up | NM | 1 | |
NM | 2 | Harry Teague | *Steve Pearce | Cliff Pirtio | NM | 1-Jun | Safe D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||
NV | 3 | Dina Titus | *Dr. Joe Heck | Ed Bridges | Brad Leutwyler | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | |
NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | *Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Gary Berntsen | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NY | 1 | |
NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Michael Allegretti | Mike Grimm | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NY | 13 | ||
NY | 19 | John Hall | *Thomas DeChiaro | Nan Hayworth | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NY | 19 | ||
NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | *Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Leans D | NY | 20 | |||
NY | 23 | Bill Owens | *Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny; | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | NY | 23 | ||
NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | *Richard Hanna | Logan Bell | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||
NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Mark Bitz | Ann Marie Buerkle | David Gay | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | NY | 25 | |
NY | 29 | Open D (Eric Massa) | *Tom Reed | Brian Kolb | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | NY | 29 | |
OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | OH | 1 | |||
OH | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | OH | 2 | |||
OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | *Tom Ganley | Frank Chestney | Bill Haney | OH | 4-May | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | OH | 13 | |
OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | John Adams | OH | 4-May | Leans R | Likely D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | OH | 15 | ||
OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Matt Miller | H. Doyle Smith | OH | 4-May | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | OH | 16 | |
OH | 18 | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | Jeanette Moll | Dave Daubenmire | OH | 4-May | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | OH | 18 | |
PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Ed Franz | Paul Huber | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | PA | 3 | |
PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | *Mary Beth Buchanan | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Leans D | PA | 4 | ||
PA | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Safe R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | PA | 6 | |||
PA | 7 | Open D (Sestak) | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 7 | |||
PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | *Mike Fitzpatrick | Gloria Carlineo | Ira Hoffman | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | PA | 8 | |
PA | 10 | Chris Carney | *Tom Marino | David Madeira | Malcolm Derk | PA | 18-May | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | PA | 10 | |
PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | Chris Paige | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||
PA | 12 | Open D (John Murtha) | *Bill Russell | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 12 | ||
PA | 17 | Tim Holden | *Frank Ryan | Josh First | Dave Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Toss-Up | PA | 17 | |
SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Albert Spencer | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | SC | 5 | ||
SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Chris Nelson | Blake Curd | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Leans D | SD | AL | ||
TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | TN | 4 | |
TN | 6 | Open D (Bart Gordon) | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | TN | 6 | |
TN | 8 | Open D (John Tanner) | Stephen Fincher | George Finn | James Hart | TN | 5-Aug | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | TN | 8 | |
TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | Rob Curnock | TX | 13-Apr | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | ||
TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Will Hurd | Francisco Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||
TX | 25 | Lloyd Doggett | *Dr. Donna Campbell | TX | 13-Apr | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | TX | 25 | |||
VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | *Ben Loyola | Scott Rigell | Kenny Golden | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | |
VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | Virgil Goode (R or I ?) | Ken Boyd | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | |
VA | 8 | Jim Moran | *Matthew Berry | Patrick Murray | VA | 8-Jun | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | VA | 8 | ||
VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | *Morgan Griffith | *Adam Light | Jessie Ring | VA | 8-Jun | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans D | VA | 9 | |
VA | 11 | Gerald Connelly | *Keith Fimian | Pat Herrity | Tim Hugo | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Toss-Up | VA | 11 | |
WA | 3 | Open D (Brian Baird) | David Castillo | Jaime Herrera | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | |
WA | 8 | Dem Primary Winner | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Likely D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Leans R | WI | 8 | |
WV | 1 | Alan Mollohan | David B. McKinley | Sarah Minear | Mac Warner | WV | 11-May | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Toss-Up | Leans D | WV | 1 | |
Code | Color Code Indicates | ||||||||||||||
New Entry or Major Change | |||||||||||||||
More than 3 candidates - Click for link to see all | |||||||||||||||
Upcoming Primary or Runoff | |||||||||||||||
Completed Primary | |||||||||||||||
*Freeper Endorsed Candidate | |||||||||||||||
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat |
We can deal with flux. What do you think of the HTML version of the table? Don't hold back on me.
Not quite. Look HERE
Yup. Thanks for playing Angela. Too bad her head isn’t screwed on as to the 1 issue.
Looks fine to me. Very colorful. ;fd
It get can’t any wider and still fit on 1 screen, at least on my screen.
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