Posted on 03/26/2010 6:22:14 PM PDT by randita
Discuss the following projections:
According to CQ Politics, March, 2010
Senatorial 2010 Election - 36 Seats Are Up
(Projected: 0 DEM Gains, 4 GOP Gains, 8 Toss Ups)
Retiring Democratic Senators (5 seats)
Christopher Dodd of Connecticut (Likely)
Ted Kaufman of Delaware (Leans GOP)
Roland Burris of Illinois (Toss Up)
Evan Bayh of Indiana (Leans GOP)
Byron Dorgan of North Dakota (Likely GOP)
Retiring Republican Senators (6 seats)
George LeMieux of Florida (Likely GOP)
Sam Brownback of Kansas (Safe)
Jim Bunning of Kentucky (Toss Up)
Kit Bond of Missouri (Toss Up)
Judd Gregg of New Hampshire Toss Up)
George Voinovich of Ohio (Toss Up)
Democratic incumbents (13 seats)
Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (Leans GOP)
Barbara Boxer of California (Likely DEM)
Michael Bennet of Colorado (Toss Up)
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii (Safe)
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland (Safe)
Harry Reid of Nevada (Toss Up)
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (Safe)
Chuck Schumer of New York (Safe)
Ron Wyden of Oregon (Safe)
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania (Toss Up)
Patrick Leahy of Vermont (Safe)
Patty Murray of Washington (Safe)
Russ Feingold of Wisconsin (Safe)
Republican incumbents (12 seats)
Richard Shelby of Alabama (Safe)
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (Safe)
John McCain of Arizona (Safe)
Johnny Isakson of Georgia (Safe)
Mike Crapo of Idaho (Safe)
Chuck Grassley of Iowa (Safe)
David Vitter of Louisiana (Leans GOP)
Richard Burr of North Carolina (Leans GOP)
Tom Coburn of Oklahoma (Safe)
Jim DeMint of South Carolina (Safe)
John Thune of South Dakota (Likely)
Bob Bennett of Utah (Safe)
CQ is way to conservative on their picks. They don’t want to crap where they eat.
I want Specter to lose in the primary.
Democratic incumbents (13 seats)
Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (Leans GOP) She is TOAST
Barbara Boxer of California (Likely DEM) She could lsoe
Michael Bennet of Colorado (Toss Up) Repubs should win
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii (Safe) Forget it
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland (Safe) Forget it
Harry Reid of Nevada (Toss Up) Reid is TOAST
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (Safe) This is crazy - Pataki?
Chuck Schumer of New York (Safe) This is also crazy.
Ron Wyden of Oregon (Safe) maybe not
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania (Toss Up) Specter should lose
Patrick Leahy of Vermont (Safe) Forget it
Patty Murray of Washington (Safe) Maybe not
Russ Feingold of Wisconsin (Safe) He could lose
CQ is a Dem party front group.
Have you ever seen the lefty from CQ on Greta?
He spits out non stop Dem party talking points.
Big Dyke Patty from Wash is going down since Dino Rossi in the Senate race.
Boxer is running behind the top two GOPers.
Pataki will be taking on Gillband.
Buy CQ just peddles the Dem DC beltway spin.
The more I look at the crap the more its nonsense.
Bennett from CO is way behind
More
Feingold is toast due to Thompson.
CQ list is pure left wing spin.
No, I wasn’t really sure of the politics of CQ, but I thought their projections were cautious concerning possible GOP gains. One of the tip offs to that is their listing of Thune as “Likely”. Yeah, right.
One good sign is that if they are conceding 4 GOP pick ups and 8 Toss Ups (most of which may go GOP), that means the GOP REALLY does have a shot at taking the Senate - a scenario which would have been considered improbable 6 months ago.
Kentucky is a tossup? New Hampshire is a tossup? There is a leftist at CQ engaging in some wishful thinking.
Thompson hasn’t even declared yet, but according to reports, is leaning toward it. Internal polling shows Thompson running ahead of Feingold and Rasmussen shows them tied. The CQ projections obviously aren’t considering the impact of Thompson on the race.
Nine to tie, 10 to win. Where could they come from?
Need to hold:
FL - likely
KS - likely
KY - this one’s really a toss-up right now.
MO - leaning GOP
NH - bears watching
OH - cautiously optimistic
Still need nine or ten:
AR - likely pick-up
CT - leaning GOP but not confident
CO - leaning GOP
DE - likely pick-up
IN - likely pick-up
ND - leaning GOP
NV - leaning GOP, need to get behind one candidate
PA - a true toss-up
WI - leans GOP if Thompson runs
That’s nine. Getting #10 will be tough/
CA - this state consistently disappoints me and I don’t want to hope on these loons making the right choice even with the worst economy in the country staring them in the face.
NY (1) - Gillebrand is very vulnerable if a high-profile opponent emerges (Pataki, Giuliani). Never underestimate the ability of NY Republicans to &%$# this up, though.
NY (2) - Schumer is the safest seat in the bunch because nobody credible is going to run against him when they could run against her.
OR, WA - long shot for party switch but not impossible.
So there you have it. Five to nine seats pickup very possible. 10th pickup unlikely unless everything breaks right. I think much will depend on three factors - 1) whether anger against health care can be stoked another seven months, 2) if GOP can field quality opponents in key races and 3) whether Obama does more things to piss off average Americans.
And let’s not forget about AZ where we may be able to throw out a RINO which is almost as good a win as beating a Dem.
My predictions:
GOP gains: PA, IN, AR, NV, ND, DE, CO
Tossups: CA, WI, WA, NY special
Ds keep IL, CT
I mostly agree with you, except there’s no way in Hell that the GOP takes Connecticut. Dodd’s pet monkey is winning by 40 points, and his strongest opponent is a libertine wrestling promoter.
If Tommy Thompson runs, Feingold is in for the fight of his life in Wisconsin, and Thompson will run.
“Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson is preparing to run for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Russ Feingold, according to several sources familiar with Thompson's thinking. Thompson has spent the past several weeks taking the steps any candidate must take in order to run for office — he's evaluating staff, he's talking to fundraisers, and he's separating himself from his business interests.
Late last week, Thompson resigned from the Board of Directors of CNS Response, Inc., a health care data company. Thompson said the resignation was for personal reasons. A statement from Thompson, who has agreed to become chairman of the CNS Response advisory board, read: “I have nothing but the highest respect for the management and Board of CNS Response, and look forward to helping them advance this important medical technology.”
“He's 75 percent there,” says one source close to Thompson. Two others who have been talking to Thompson about a potential bid agreed with that assessment. But another Thompson insider cautioned that while Thompson is doing all of the things expected of a candidate-to-be, he will not make a final decision until after he returns from a family vacation over Easter. And it remains possible that Thompson will decide against a run.”
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/tommy-thompson-mulls-senate-run
Rassmussen:
Thompson 47, Feingold 45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/election_2010_wisconsin_senate
Pataki stands a pretty good chance of beating Gillibrand if he runs in New York, and Rossi can beat Murray in WA.
Rasmussen : Rossi 48, Murray 46.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/washington/washington_senate_murray_leads_all_republican_challengers_but_rossi
As for Boxer the moonbabt, she is running even with Campbell in CA right now.
I agree with the rest of your picks : PA, IN, AR, NV, ND, DE, CO are going to be GOP gains.
But I am going to make IL a toss up. That makes it a 7 seat gain for the GOP, plus another possible 3 from the "toss up" category(WI, WA and NY) if things break our way. We could be looking at taking the US Senate, and stopping the evil Kenyan communist cold in his tracks.
You’re right. I was thinking about Dodd leaving, not his apparent replacement.
There isnt a pollster out there with their head more up the butt of the DNC than CQ. There are at least 6 easy GOP pickups right now and and another 3 or 4 in play more than these libtards have listed.
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