His "abyss" (total support minus strong disapproval) rating is drifting between 0 and +5. I'd guess we'll be in negative territory by April.
He's got to pass ObamaCare this weekend. Otherwise the conservatives will hate him for being a socialist, and the socialists will hate him for being an ineffective socialist. Look for him to explore all options option to a crooked Chicago politician.
The socialists fall into a couple of categories, Fabian socialists who want our country to evolve into socialism, and revolutionary (Che type) socialists.
Fabians are mad because he’s a revolutionary socialist, spoiling their plans and awakening the American people.
And the “Ches” are mad because he can’t effectively pull off the revolution.
>> he’s hit -21 three times in the last three weeks, indicating a likelihood of breaking through -21 and achieving a new low at some point in the next few weeks <<
Not to rain on today’s parade, but I think the true “underlying” value of the Index is now around -17 or -18. And AFAIC, that’s fantastic news!
On the other hand, to get today’s 3-day moving average number of -21, I calculate that last night’s “raw number” for the Index probably was down around -23 or -24. If I’m correct, then the “3-day methodology” used by Rasmussen will keep the Index in the neighborhood of -21 for the next two days. And there’s an excellent chance it will even go down to -22.
But a drop to the latter level would most likely be a chimera. Come Monday, I expect the number will move up, so as to bring it closer to the value of the ten-day moving average — which this morning hit a new historic low, -17.70.
(Ditto for the 60-day moving average, which also hit a new low this morning, -15.02. More excellent news!)
Forecast for tomorrow:
85% probability that the Index is at -20 or lower.
15% probability that it rises to -19 or higher.