with the rats rewriting the rules to bypass any house vote i would say intrade has it wrong...should be 100%
It will more than likely pass. Lets do more than HOPE for CHANGE in 2010, shall we?
Wouldn't put much stock in it myself. The votes are what matter.
Have you ever heard of painting the charts?
That is what stock players do when they want you to think a certain way.
There is so little volume on intrade that someone with a few tousand dollars could move the chart.
Get real. you are getting played like a sucker.
me tooooooooooooooo
Buck up, everyone. Here’s a post from NR’s Corner less than 2 hours ago:
Dreier: Democrats ‘About 10 Votes Off’ from Passage in House [Daniel Foster]
In a press conference on Capitol Hill today, Rep. David Dreier (R., Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Rules Committee, said the word around the House is that Democrats are still about 10 votes away from securing the 216 they will need to pass changes to the health-care bill. Dreier added that that number might be moving in the wrong direction for Democrats.
“You are hearing that people are peeling off,” he said.
Dreier also repeated the warnings about the Senate that many Congressional Republicans have been issuing to the other side of the aisle. He said that, assuming House Democrats succeed in passing a reconciliation measure along to the Senate, even marginal changes made there would require the measure to return to the House yet again.
“I would not be terribly sanguine about the prospect of the Senate effectively dealing with this,” Dreier said, adding that only once in history has a reconciliation measure passed through the Senate without a single amendment.
The reconciliation measure would also have to be sent back to the House if any provisions contained therein were struck down by the Byrd Rule. A memo from Dreier’s office put it this way:
The one thing that history demonstrates is that the reconciliation process in the Senate is unpredictable. No matter how well you “scrub” the provisions in a bill for potential Byrd rule violations, something always gets through. The Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 had 3 provisions which were stricken on Byrd rule points of order despite a thorough review. The notion that the reconciliation bill will be immediately cleared by the Senate for the President is difficult to fathom.
Dreier said that Republicans won’t know until later this week whether the Democrats will pursue a form of what has come to be known as the “Slaughter Solution” to avoid a direct vote on the Senate bill. But in the memo, Dreier’s office gives three “flavors” such a rule could take. It could simply self-enact the Senate bill and send it to the president to sign. It could deem the Senate bill passed upon passage of the reconciliation measure in the House. Or, in the most unprecedented option, it could deem the Senate bill passed in the House only when the Senate passes the House reconciliation measure.
UPDATE: As several readers noted, the first draft of this post was unclear on whether the whip count was moving toward or away from passage. To clarify, Dreier suggested that the Democrats could be losing votes.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
Intrade also had Kerry winning in ‘04.
IF EVERYONE FIGHTS, IT WILL NOT PASS. Fight.
Most people understand that it is going to pass. This is just a game being played till the end of the week. It is not a question of whether Pelosi will have the votes - she most certainly will. The question is which members have to vote yes and which are given a pass on this one.
We are getting ObamaCare, and it will not be repealed either.
Elections have consequences.
America simply has too many eaters nowadays, and too few productive people. We are becoming like Europe, and Americans seem to want exactly that.
this is by June 30th, not by end of week, right?
I’m kicking myself today because I almost bought a bunch of shares yesterday as an emotional hedge — if Obamacare passes, I make money & don’t feel so bad; if it fails, I just paid to seal its fate.
Instead, I don’t even have bragging rights.
I suppose if anyone “knows” for certain which way this will go, they’ll make money on it. It looks reasonably priced to me right now.
How can it NOT pass? The Obama administration has the wealth of the American taxpayers at their disposal to bribe as many congressmen as it takes.