Last Week: 10,099.14
Dow Jones Industrials, 1 month
Last Week: 3.69%
Aggregate Bond Index, 1 month
Posted on 02/20/2010 2:01:08 PM PST by Christian_Capitalist
Christian_Capitalist's
Weekly Markets Update
| Dow Jones: 10,402.35 Last Week: 10,099.14 Dow Jones Industrials, 1 month
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10 Year Note: 3.78% Last Week: 3.69% Aggregate Bond Index, 1 month
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The Obama Budget and the Horse You Rode In On
By The Mogambo Guru
02/04/10 Tampa Bay, Florida – From the AP I read the astonishing item that “In a face-to-face encounter, President Barack Obama chastised Republican lawmakers Friday for opposing him on health care, economic stimulus and other major issues.” Hahahaha! This is too rich! Hahaha! Composing myself for just a moment and taking a quick look to see if my zipper is up, I stand up and say, “Let me be the first to tell that arrogant commie bastard that Republican lawmakers are not the only ones opposing his arrogant, insane fiscal monstrosities, and I will be the first to say that I have nothing but Utter Mogambo Contempt (UMC) for anyone who is NOT opposed to such lunacies that are, already, budgeted to spend $3.8 trillion in the fiscal year when the Whole Freaking Economy (WFE) is only $14 trillion, and out of that, the Congressional monsters plan to deficit-spend $1.6 trillion in the year, which is So Much Money (SMM) that if your brain has not exploded at the sheer inflationary horror of increasing the money supply by $1.6 trillion in one year, then say “goodbye” to the last of your brain cells when I tell you that this whopping, gargantuan, insane $1.6 trillion of deficit spending is only the beginning!
I know, from long experience, that many of you ask, like this recent one from mom, “Do you know that you are the worst? Your writing stinks, your economics stink, I hate you and everything you do, and one can only wonder how it could get worse!” which leads me to the conclusion that many of you will write and ask, “How could it get worse than $1.6 trillion of deficit-spending, which means at least $1.6 trillion in new money created by the Federal Reserve, so that the federal government can spend $3.8 trillion, which is so much money that it is 27% of the whole freaking economy?”
“It’s easy!” I reply. Every year, the corrupt, slimy Congress, as is their habit of the last umpteen years, will pass a number of “emergency appropriations” throughout the year as they find that they are, as usual, “running a little short of cash”, and which usually totals almost $1.5 trillion more by themselves.
So we (meaning “me” and my invisible friends who are getting increasingly hostile about this fiscal and monetary insanity stuff and who are spending a lot of time telling me “Burn! Burn everything!”), are looking at, if the Federal Reserve creates the necessary money and credit, an almost-certain $3.1 trillion of new money added to an already-gargantuan money supply, all of it borrowed and spent in One Freaking Year (OFY)!!!!
As an astute Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR), you no doubt instantly noted the four – count ’em, four! – exclamation points, indicating something that is extremely important or another typing error. Hurriedly calibrating your Junior Mogambo Decoder Rings (JMRDR), you quickly decipher the encoded message, which is that “New money added to an already-gargantuan money supply in one year punctuated by four exclamation points” translates to the worst of all worlds, which is “We’re freaking doomed!” or to just, “We’re doomed!” which is about as pithy as one can get, saving a lot of valuable reading time, which makes the Mogambo Decoder Ring such a terrific value.
But the results are the same, with or without a Mogambo Decoder Ring (MDR), which is good news because MDRs are of such shoddy construction and inferior materials that people are always wanting their money back, mostly because the ring broke right away, or it was missing a few pieces, or it had a “funny smell.”
I used to respond to irate customers with a formal reply that said, in a nice way, “Sorry, but all sales are final!” but that never stopped them from demanding their money back and being a pain in the butt.
So I started replying with, “Screw you!” which didn’t stop them either, and so I stopped even doing that. So screw ’em!
And speaking of “screw ’em”, the fiscal and monetary insanities of Obama and Bernanke means that you, me and everyone you know are one of “’em”, and the only hope you have is to buy gold and silver like some crazed zombie, which is the only thing that really worked in the last 4,500 years of one moron country after another borrowing itself into bankruptcy and what happened next (bad).
And also accumulate oil stocks and oil-related mutual funds, now that everyone is addicted to oil, which should be expected because oil packs so much chemical power per cubic centimeter. And right out of the ground, too, which mean you don’t even have to make it! It’s made (absent a little refining) when it pops up out of the ground and says, “Hello, boys!”
The astonishing versatility of all that energy wrapped up in all those carbon molecules and all those lovely single, double and (dare we hope?) triple bonds – oozing power from every pore! – has been adapted to so, so many things, from plastics to medicines to fertilizers to anything you can name.
Then with gold, silver and oil in hand while the government and the Federal Reserve are stepping on your neck, you can say, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”
CURRENCIES
US Dollar (UUP)
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Euro (FXE)
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Yen (FXY)
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STOCKS
US Stocks (VTI)
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European Stocks (VGK)
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Chinese Stocks (GXC)
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Japanese Stocks (EWJ)
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BONDS
US Treasuries (TLT)
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US Corporates (LQD)
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US Inflation-Hedged Bonds (TIP)
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International Inflation-Hedged Bonds (WIP)
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TANGIBLE ASSETS
Gold (GLD)
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Silver (SLV)
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Commodities -- Broad Index (DJP)
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Real Estate Investment Trusts (VNQ)
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Pinging some folks who might enjoy a weekly update...
Whoa!! Guru was gone for a while and all the archives of his articles disappeared.
He musta P’d somebody O big time.
At this point, I think that vomit, tinged with blood, coming out of my mouth and crapping all over myself in pure terror about such financial calamity speaks more eloquently than mere words allow, and Mr. Fry filled the sudden void with, “What’s more, Greece’s accumulated debt totals $443 billion – a whopping 113% of GDP.” Gaaaahhhh!
Glad he’s back. Gotta luv it!!
I didn't see that anyone was posting regular markets updates to Free Republic, so I figured, "Well, heck, I can do that".
A weekly update from Feb 4th, or am I reading the dates wrong?
The article is from the 4th (The Mogambo Guru just started posting articles again, so I’m playing catch-up); all the numbers and charts are as of the close of business, 2-19-10.
(Shrugs). Oh, well. This is just the first of (hopefully) a regular series; I'm still tweaking it.
But it's painful to listen to what he has to say...
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! You know what the Mogambo Guru would say about that. Think it's contained in the last portion of the above article. ;-)
But seriously - thanks for the ping. Should have bought SLV when it was hanging around @ 15 - dang!
What's up with the PIIGS this next week? More "interesting" news coming from Greece, I see.
Lastly, how much has Timmy & Benny got to sell this coming week?
Thanks!! I'll put you on the ping list. I plan on publishing these updates every Saturday. Provided I, y'know, actually get around to doing so every Saturday.
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! You know what the Mogambo Guru would say about that. Think it's contained in the last portion of the above article. ;-) But seriously - thanks for the ping. Should have bought SLV when it was hanging around @ 15 - dang!
FWIW, the July 2010 $15 Puts on SLV are currently yielding $0.93 on the bid. By my math, that's a 6.2% return on a 5-month position (or 14.9% annualized). Not a bad way to make almost 15%-annual on your cash; the disadvantage, of course, is that you could be forced to buy Silver at $15, and then watch it drop to $12. But, if you're comfortable with buying SLV at $15 anyway, then selling Puts can be a way to keep your cash account "working" for you -- even while it's just sitting in cash. However, I'll warn you: my advice is probably worth exactly as much as you just paid for it.
(Disclosure: in my own family's little investment account, I am long Jan-2011 in-the-money calls on SLV; so theoretically it's in my personal selfish interest to encourage demand for the stuff. But I also do think it's a good investment, especially compared to buying gold at $1100).
What's up with the PIIGS this next week? More "interesting" news coming from Greece, I see. Lastly, how much has Timmy & Benny got to sell this coming week?
Currently, Greece's debt situation is being smoke-and-mirrored by Goldman Sachs, so who knows what the "truth" is in that market. Wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole.
As far as US Bonds -- the Treasury will be bringing to market a record-breaking $126 Billion in debt next week.
Yes, you read that right. $126 Billion in new debt issues for the week.
The only good news is, they'll be bringing to market the very first-ever 30-year Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS), which are the only US Bonds I'd consider buying right now.
(Disclosure again: I am short against long-term US Treasuries with some TBT in my personal account, and really short against Treasuries with some TMV in a family trust account).
If you do make it a weekly thing, please pick out a nice keyword and let us know what it is so we can track your postings.
Thanks!
Okey doke. I’ll probably just label it keyword “Market” for now.
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