Unfortunately, the GOP Primary set-up favors the front-runner, and Moderates. Giuliani was the fist early front-runner NOT to get the nomination, and that was mostly because his followers dissented to their second choice, McCain, when they finally came to terms with how opposed Rudy was by the grassroots. Also, he had previously burned some bridges that never fully got repaired.
The Democrats have had upsets numerous times, including with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Their primaries are set-up in such a way that upsets are more likely to happen.
The truth is: the GOP machinery is VERY effective in getting their candidate the nomination. Romney is ADORED by the establishment, absolutely LOVED. He is the odds-on favorite, and that's before the GOP encourages DeMint to run in SC (To bleed a likely Sarah win there and in NC/FL), Perry in TX (same), Gingrich in GA (same), Thune in the mountain states (same), and Santorum (to ensure PA and OH go Romney).
I am all for Palin, 100% behind her. But we have to be real and understand that this is Romney's nomination to lose.
That may be true. And, I'll stipulate that - for whatever reason - Romney is the darling of the GOP money machine. But, unlike some others - Reagan, Dole, HW Bush, Nixon - whose "turn it was", Romney is a little different. Romney doesn't have nearly the name recognition or longevity on the national scene as the others did clearly did. I bet well over 70% of the national electorate couldn't pick Romney out of a line-up. IOW, he's a guy who may be first in line, but no one has really heard of him. It's kind of without precedent in the last 70 years of Republican politics.
I don't think he'll get the nomination because he doesn't have the charisma, and because he's HATED by the SoCons. I still think it will either be Palin - if she performs well in the debates - or someone like DeMint, Thune or Barbour if Palin falls apart. Sure, those three don't have Romney's name recognition (as limited as it is), but no one hates them, either.
the GOP machinery is VERY effective in getting the Democrat favored candidate, who the Democrats can easiest beat, the nomination. The first 5 primaries are open primaries (apparently in states run by a democrat machine). The crossover vote 'tells america' who the repub candidate will be...which spills over to the next dozen states or so. lemmings