Posted on 02/13/2010 6:02:14 PM PST by smoothsailing
Austin, Texas
Texas governor Rick Perry and Sarah Palin are friends from her years as governor of Alaska. In April 2008, a very pregnant Palin joined Perry and other Republican governors in Dallas at a conference on energy. While addressing the group, Palin suddenly turned to Perry and asked him to take the microphone. She had gone into labor. Palin rushed to the airport and flew back to Alaska, where her son Trig was born.
Last week, Palin returned to Texas to speak at a rally for Perry outside Houston. (She noted Trig was “almost a Texan.”) Perry is facing a primary challenge from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Palin took up the theme of his campaign: He’s the Texas candidate, Hutchison belongs to the alien world of Washington. “What’s it going to be,” Palin said, “the way they operate in D.C. or the way y’all get things done in Texas?”
Perry, 59, made the most of Palin’s appearance. It was hours before the Super Bowl. “Think about it,” he said. “In ten years, you may not remember whether the Colts or Saints won, but you’ll never forget the time you got to see one of America’s superstar conservative leaders and joined with thousands of your fellow conservatives standing tall for conservatism.”
Palin’s entry into the Texas campaign wasn’t quite that historic. But it did reflect the thrust of Perry’s pitch for a third full term as governor. “The answer,” he declared at the rally, “is less Washington and more Texas.” And Palin’s embrace of Perry targeted the conservative grassroots of the Republican party in Texas in a way that Hutchison can’t match.
Hutchison, 66, first elected to the Senate in 1993, is the preferred candidate of the party’s upper crust, which has soured on Perry. She’s been endorsed by George H.W. Bush, Dick Cheney, James Baker, Phil Gramm, and a host of Texans identified with the two Bush administrations. (The only prominent Bushie to back Perry is Joe Allbaugh, a campaign aide to George W. Bush in 2000 and later the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.)
The Perry-Hutchison race is a battle of Texas titans. They are the state’s biggest names, the leading political heavyweights, and (along with Senator John Cornyn) its top elected officials.
Sharply contested primaries are often defended as invigorating for political parties. But this one is more likely to be harmful to whoever wins. Perry and Hutchison have portrayed each other in harsh terms—Perry as a patron of cronyism that borders on corruption; Hutchison as an aloof, Washington big spender—that practically write the TV ads for the Democratic candidate, probably former Houston mayor Bill White. Perry is regarded as the stronger primary candidate, Hutchison the better vote-getter in the general election because of her appeal to moderates. At the moment, Perry leads Hutchison by double digits in primary polls. Against White, both run about 5 percentage points ahead.
The trepidation of Republicans is twofold. Should White win the governorship, he might sweep Democrats into office at the state and local level, particularly in Houston and Dallas. Even if Republicans retain control of the state legislature, White as governor could force reapportionment of congressional districts into the federal courts just as Texas is gaining as many as four or five House seats thanks to population growth. That could cost Republicans seats.
At a time when the party is just recovering from heavy defeats in 2006 and 2008, the loss of Texas would be a major setback—and awfully embarrassing. For the past two decades, Texas has been one of the biggest arenas of Republican success.
But the anxiety, while not un-founded, is overblown. I suspect one reason for the angst is that the Perry-Hutchison battle has become a blood feud. Another is that it was unnecessary. Hutchison is the most successful Republican office seeker in Texas history. She has never received less than 60 percent of the vote in her four Senate races. She wanted to run for governor in 2006 and tried to force Perry to withdraw without a primary contest.
He didn’t flinch. As lieutenant governor, he succeeded George W. Bush when he resigned in 2000 after his election as president. Perry was then elected in 2002. In 2006, he rounded up impressive support across Texas and refused to surrender to Hutchison.
A truce of sorts was reached when Perry sent word through emissaries that 2006 would be his “last” race for governor, and 2010 would be Hutchison’s turn. Karl Rove, then White House political chief, was among those who prompted her to drop plans to run in 2006.
Whatever was settled four years ago was blown up in April 2008 when Perry announced for reelection. After getting only 39 percent in a four-way race in 2006, his prospects looked bleak. In early 2009, he trailed Hutchison by 20 percentage points in polls. He was already set to become the longest serving governor ever in Texas. Reelection in 2010 and extending his tenure to 14 years seemed a stretch.
But Perry’s army of critics underestimated him. He fashioned himself as the guardian of Texas against the encroachments of Washington. He embraced the tea party movement. On April 15, Tax Day, Perry spoke at tea party rallies in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin. “He really regained his footing,” says Terry Sullivan, Hutchison’s campaign manager. “She focused on being a United States senator. He ran around the state talking about secession.”
In truth, Perry never uttered the word “secession,” but he alluded to it. After the tea party event in Austin, he was questioned by reporters about the murmurs of secession. “There’s a lot of different scenarios,” the governor said. “We’ve got a great union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place and we’re a pretty independent lot to boot.” With opposition to President Obama sweeping Texas, Perry’s words crystallized his role as a leading foe of the Obama administration’s policies.
As Perry soared, Hutchison sagged. She had a “rough summer,” says Sullivan. “She wanted to run for governor in the worst way,” a sympathetic Republican official says, “and she has run in the worst way.” She promised to quit the Senate, then postponed the date for resignation several times. For months, she was peppered with questions about when she would step down. Even Perry got in the act, asking her during a televised debate in January when she intended to resign.
While extolling Texas, Perry accuses Hutchison of “tearing down” the state. He insisted, in another debate last month, that “nobody gets confused that this is the best state in the nation to be living in today. We lead the nation in development of jobs.” This wouldn’t be the case if Texas followed Hutchison’s “spend-it-all-spend-it-now approach,” he said.
Perry has “in many ways dispelled the notion that governor of Texas is an inherently weak office,” Jason Embry of the Austin American-Statesman wrote last week. He has demanded loyalty from the many aides he’s appointed to top state jobs. But he has suffered two significant defeats as governor, and accusations of cronyism and slipshod ethics have grown in recent months.
He proposed building the Trans-Texas Corridor, a toll road along I-35, the north-south interstate. The plan, which would have included seizing large amounts of private land, was killed by the Republican-led legislature. So was his proposed mandate to vaccinate every sixth-grade girl against a virus that causes cervical cancer. On both issues, former Perry aides were lobbyists for the private companies poised to benefit the most. In other cases, he has installed allies in positions over which the governor has historically had no direct control.
Hutchison has seized on the cronyism. “There are two ways to get things done in Austin,” one of her TV ads says. “Hire a lobbyist and donate to this governor [a picture of Perry is shown] or elect a new one.” In a televised debate sponsored by the Dallas Morning News, she said: “You might ask why did we have a plan for the Trans-Texas Corridor? Why did the governor mandate vaccines for our young daughters? It was because there were lobbyists that were first, not the people of Texas.” Perry, who has defended both proposals, didn’t respond.
That debate was a mixed blessing for Hutchison. She was crossexamined on her pro-choice position on abortion, as she had been in the first debate. Hutchison refused to say if she favors overturning Roe v. Wade. (She voted for a resolution in 2003 affirming it.) In a confusing answer, she suggested repealing Roe v. Wade would lead to abortion “havens” in some states.
Hutchison’s few deviations from conservatism aren’t her biggest problem. “Her record is four times more conservative than her rhetoric,” says Sullivan, the campaign manager. Her biggest failure has been an inability to spell out a compelling rationale for her candidacy.
Texas voters, especially Republicans, are happy with her in Washington. She’s the most popular political figure in the state. Yet, assuming Perry wins the primary, he’ll be the favorite to win another four years as governor.
One more thing. The agony of a bitter primary for Republicans may extend past March 2. If the third Republican candidate, Debra Medina—a Ron Paul follower—attracts enough votes she could deny Perry or Hutchison a majority and force a runoff on April 13.
Given that Perry voters are the most likely to vote, his chances in a runoff look good. But unexpected things can happen in politics. Hutchison, should she lose to Perry, may make the perfectly sensible decision to stay in the Senate. If that happens, Republicans may get what they’ve wanted all along: to keep Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison. No doubt Palin would be pleased, too.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
Bad headline... KBH is trailing badly, this wont be a fight to the finish.
Perry is going to win very easily both the primaries and the general elections for Texas governor.
Any chance she might drop out?
It’s a real shame that it has come down to these two losers.
Perry may be far from the best that Texas can do, but KBH is awful. I’ve watched her in the Senate for some while now. She is fed gov all the way. We’ll all just go along to get along. Another small step on the road is to put her out of political power. Deal with the rest in time.
The former Texas cheerleader is a lightweight as she showed in the senate.
Medina sure proved that on the Beck show.
No fight Perry wins easily.
I only wish KBH would retire from the Senate after she gets her butt kicked here.
What do you base that statement on?
Any chance she might drop out?
Why now?..... In person early voting starts next Tue., Feb. 16, and the Primary is 18 days hence on Mar. 2. She’s in now so why drop out three days before voting starts?
Need to replace KBH in the Senate with a real conservative and then elect someone to replace Cornyn next time around. He’s still asking for money to elect Senators like Crist in 2010. He and KBH made an interesting pair - I think they flipped a quarter on each quote to see whose turn it was to vote yes with the loser voting no. As a result, we had no representation in the Senate for Texas.
Perry is MUCH better than KBH. And it looks as if he is going to win.
He does favors for people? What politician doesn’t? But at least he’s pro-life, and much more fiscally conservative.
Interesting that, according to Barnes, most of the RINO establishment favors KBH.
I understand, I was just wondering if she might consider saving face. It looks like Perry is gonna clean her clock otherwise.
I heard about that, Medina came across as pretty flaky.
Why? At this point, all candidates are locked and loaded for the election. The polls however, show a clear Perry lead, so KBH is unlikely to win at this point.
Washington D.C. over time makes 90% of Republicans go left and forget their roots. KBH is a good example. Sad but true.
post#15
Mrs. Prince of Space
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