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A Greek crisis is coming to America
FT.com ^ | 2/10/10 | Niall Ferguson

Posted on 02/11/2010 6:10:25 AM PST by Alistair Stratford IV

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1 posted on 02/11/2010 6:10:25 AM PST by Alistair Stratford IV
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

This is all gonna blow up in our faces. Unfortunately the last time something similar to this occurred we ended up with a world war.


2 posted on 02/11/2010 6:15:47 AM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Why Investors Do Not Think America Is The Next Greece


3 posted on 02/11/2010 6:16:31 AM PST by blam
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

The Obama administration’s new budget blithely assumes real GDP growth of 3.6 per cent over the next five years, with inflation averaging 1.4 per cent.

3.6 Percent( snicker ), minus taxes say combined of half, so 1.9 true percent growth, with the Federal Reserve induced inflation thief of the value of their Federal Reserve notes of 1.4 percent, leaves a growth rate of half a percent.

0.5 percent. ( Best case )

Yeah baby! That’s really going to pay those 100 trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities!


4 posted on 02/11/2010 6:22:45 AM PST by Leisler (We are in the best of hands)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

The teleprompter can talk his way out of debt.


5 posted on 02/11/2010 6:26:20 AM PST by DungeonMaster (A Christian Democrat is better than a heathen Republican)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

Save your Confederate money. It will be more solid than Union greenbacks.


6 posted on 02/11/2010 6:27:27 AM PST by Psalm 144 (Deo Vindice)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV; blam; FromLori
All Fiat Currencies Go To Heaven.


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

7 posted on 02/11/2010 6:29:49 AM PST by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
Small wonder Morgan Stanley assumes that 10-year yields will rise from around 3.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent this year.

Would TBT (Ultrashort Treasuries) be a good investment right about now? Any opinions?

8 posted on 02/11/2010 6:42:23 AM PST by Starboard
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To: Alistair Stratford IV
The International Monetary Fund recently published estimates of the fiscal adjustments developed economies would need to make to restore fiscal stability over the decade ahead. Worst were Japan and the UK (a fiscal tightening of 13 per cent of GDP). Then came Ireland, Spain and Greece (9 per cent). And in sixth place? Step forward America, which would need to tighten fiscal policy by 8.8 per cent of GDP to satisfy the IMF.

Note that 8.8 per cent of GDP, is almost THREE TIMES the amount of the adjustment that Reagan pushed through with his tax reform, which at 3% of GDP everyone claimed was "massive" etc.

9 posted on 02/11/2010 6:46:01 AM PST by ikka
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To: blam

I am reminded of the verse(s) in Jeremiah,
They have lied about the Lord and said, “Not He; misfortune will not come on us, and we will not see sword or famine. The prophets are as wind, and the word is not in them. Thus it will be done to them!” 5:12-13
The prophets prophesy falsely, and the priests rule on their own authority; and my people love it so! But what will you do at the end of it? 5:31
They have healed the brokenness of My people superficially, Saying Peace, peace but there is no peace. 6:14


10 posted on 02/11/2010 6:46:32 AM PST by Conservative9
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To: Psalm 144

You still fight’n that war?


11 posted on 02/11/2010 6:59:49 AM PST by WestwardHo (Whom the god would destroy, they first drive mad.)
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To: Starboard

Stay away from Ultra’s (short or long) unless you are a trader and only hold the position for a day or so. Shorting long treasuries has been a loser for the last few months (trust me, I know) BUT I think it is just a matter of time before it is a winner. THAT SAID, there is an argument for the “japan had deflationary problems for the last decade” argument. It’s going to go one way or the other, and when it happens it’ll be something to see.


12 posted on 02/11/2010 7:00:38 AM PST by jdsteel (CONGRESS: Take it again in twenty ten.)
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To: Alistair Stratford IV

An incompetent government lets its country go bankrupt and then cries for help, knowing that other, better-managed countries will send them some of their money.
Bailing them out just invites more of the same.
Let them go bankrupt.


13 posted on 02/11/2010 7:02:12 AM PST by Leftism is Mentally Deranged
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To: Cacique

Exactly. Only this time we just can’t invade poland - they owe us big for financing their infrastructure.


14 posted on 02/11/2010 7:05:19 AM PST by Rummenigge (there are people willing to blow out the light because it casts a shadow)
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To: Leftism is Mentally Deranged

More like a socialist gov’t driven by gov’t employee unions.

Kinda like califlower...


15 posted on 02/11/2010 7:42:07 AM PST by ASOC (In case of attack, tune to 640 kilocycles or 1240 kilocycles on your AM dial.)
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To: Starboard

could be ... i’m holding similar stuff with 3 year duration .... waiting for corporate bonds to collapse again ... so I can buy back into corporates at bargain prices.

Morgan stanley expecting rates to go to 5.5% THIS YEAR ... people often lose money following advice from MS. who says they are right.

I still wonder what knuckleheads would loan the feds money for 10 years at 3.5%.


16 posted on 02/11/2010 8:48:09 AM PST by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: WestwardHo

“You still fight’n that war?”

Culturally, yes.

We look at places like Chicago, New York, and D.C. - and pity the ‘victors’. Pray for them even, poor lost souls that they are.


17 posted on 02/11/2010 8:50:26 AM PST by Psalm 144 (Deo Vindice)
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To: Psalm 144
We western barbarians lived in SC for a few years. It was a cross-cultural experience for us. Like the wedding table set with an ice sculpture of the Confederate flag!
The Sons of the Confederacy forever!!!
It was a great time, but so glad to be back west of the Mississippi!
18 posted on 02/11/2010 9:10:11 AM PST by WestwardHo (Whom the god would destroy, they first drive mad.)
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To: campaignPete R-CT

“I still wonder what knuckleheads would loan the feds money for 10 years at 3.5%.”

Excellent point. Factor in the liklyhood of higher inflation, taxes and the virtual certainty of rising interest rates and it is hard to understand why anyone would be willing to tie up money for a decade at that rate. Likely a losing proposition.


19 posted on 02/11/2010 9:33:19 AM PST by Starboard
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To: jdsteel

“Stay away from Ultra’s (short or long) unless you are a trader”

I’m not a trader but wouldn’t it be OK to buy the TBT ETF and just wait for for rates to rise? Seems like the only risk is tying up some money for awhile.


20 posted on 02/11/2010 9:37:35 AM PST by Starboard
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