Posted on 02/11/2010 6:10:25 AM PST by Alistair Stratford IV
This is all gonna blow up in our faces. Unfortunately the last time something similar to this occurred we ended up with a world war.
The Obama administrations new budget blithely assumes real GDP growth of 3.6 per cent over the next five years, with inflation averaging 1.4 per cent.
3.6 Percent( snicker ), minus taxes say combined of half, so 1.9 true percent growth, with the Federal Reserve induced inflation thief of the value of their Federal Reserve notes of 1.4 percent, leaves a growth rate of half a percent.
0.5 percent. ( Best case )
Yeah baby! That’s really going to pay those 100 trillion dollars of unfunded liabilities!
The teleprompter can talk his way out of debt.
Save your Confederate money. It will be more solid than Union greenbacks.
Would TBT (Ultrashort Treasuries) be a good investment right about now? Any opinions?
Note that 8.8 per cent of GDP, is almost THREE TIMES the amount of the adjustment that Reagan pushed through with his tax reform, which at 3% of GDP everyone claimed was "massive" etc.
I am reminded of the verse(s) in Jeremiah,
They have lied about the Lord and said, “Not He; misfortune will not come on us, and we will not see sword or famine. The prophets are as wind, and the word is not in them. Thus it will be done to them!” 5:12-13
The prophets prophesy falsely, and the priests rule on their own authority; and my people love it so! But what will you do at the end of it? 5:31
They have healed the brokenness of My people superficially, Saying Peace, peace but there is no peace. 6:14
You still fight’n that war?
Stay away from Ultra’s (short or long) unless you are a trader and only hold the position for a day or so. Shorting long treasuries has been a loser for the last few months (trust me, I know) BUT I think it is just a matter of time before it is a winner. THAT SAID, there is an argument for the “japan had deflationary problems for the last decade” argument. It’s going to go one way or the other, and when it happens it’ll be something to see.
An incompetent government lets its country go bankrupt and then cries for help, knowing that other, better-managed countries will send them some of their money.
Bailing them out just invites more of the same.
Let them go bankrupt.
Exactly. Only this time we just can’t invade poland - they owe us big for financing their infrastructure.
More like a socialist gov’t driven by gov’t employee unions.
Kinda like califlower...
could be ... i’m holding similar stuff with 3 year duration .... waiting for corporate bonds to collapse again ... so I can buy back into corporates at bargain prices.
Morgan stanley expecting rates to go to 5.5% THIS YEAR ... people often lose money following advice from MS. who says they are right.
I still wonder what knuckleheads would loan the feds money for 10 years at 3.5%.
“You still fightn that war?”
Culturally, yes.
We look at places like Chicago, New York, and D.C. - and pity the ‘victors’. Pray for them even, poor lost souls that they are.
“I still wonder what knuckleheads would loan the feds money for 10 years at 3.5%.”
Excellent point. Factor in the liklyhood of higher inflation, taxes and the virtual certainty of rising interest rates and it is hard to understand why anyone would be willing to tie up money for a decade at that rate. Likely a losing proposition.
“Stay away from Ultras (short or long) unless you are a trader”
I’m not a trader but wouldn’t it be OK to buy the TBT ETF and just wait for for rates to rise? Seems like the only risk is tying up some money for awhile.
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