Posted on 02/09/2010 6:08:31 PM PST by neverdem
Three months after a rift between GOP party leaders and grass-roots conservatives led to the special election loss of a historically Republican-held seat in upstate New York, another campaign melodrama is taking shape in the same district.
Doug Hoffman, last November’s Conservative Party nominee in New York’s 23rd District who is vying again for the seat, is refusing to rule out running as a third-party candidate this year if he fails to win the Republican primary.
And his leading backer, Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, told POLITICO that he refuses to endorse any candidate other than Hoffman — raising the prospect of another contest in which a fracture on the right enables Democratic Rep. Bill Owens to skate to victory.
Long said he was confident that Hoffman would be the Republican nominee but added that Hoffman already had the endorsement of the Conservative Party. Long repeatedly refused to say whether Hoffman would endorse the eventual Republican nominee in the event he loses the GOP primary.
“Of all the potential candidates who are running, Doug Hoffman has the right to run on the Conservative Party platform. There is not even a consideration of anyone else,” Long said. “Doug Hoffman is going to be the Conservative Party candidate.”
Hoffman campaign spokesman Rob Ryan declined to say whether Hoffman would run as a third-party candidate if he failed to win the GOP nomination.
Already preparing for a rematch with Owens, Hoffman commissioned a poll last month showing him with an early, commanding lead in the primary. The poll, conducted by GOP pollster John McLaughlin, shows him leading state Assemblyman William Barclay 56 percent to 24 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The poll shows Hoffman with a strong 63 percent favorability rating among Republicans, with just 19 percent viewing him unfavorably.
“Doug Hoffman has broad-based support in the Republican Party. He plans to earn the nomination, not inherit it,” Ryan said. “Doug Hoffman will be the nominee of the Republican and Conservative parties, and with their unified support, he will defeat Bill Owens in November.”
That confidence hasn’t dissuaded several prospective primary opponents who began making preparations to run after Hoffman fell short in the 2009 special election. After Hoffman’s defeat, candidates began exploring campaigns — with Barclay and businessman Matt Doheny emerging as his top potential opponents.
Unlike in the 2009 special election campaign, in which 11 Republican county leaders in the district selected the party nominee — the much-maligned liberal state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who eventually withdrew from the race — the 2010 GOP nominee will be elected in the Sept. 14 primary.
Last summer, Doheny was passed over by county leaders for the nomination, while Barclay opted not to run and instead backed Scozzafava.
After Scozzafava withdrew and endorsed Owens in the race’s final weekend, Hoffman became the de facto Republican nominee but fell short by about 3,600 votes, making Owens the first Democrat to represent the North Country district in more than a century.
This time around, Barclay is circulating a petition to all interested Republican candidates asking them to pledge support to the winner of the primary.
“One person can’t say who’s going to be the candidate. There’s a primary situation, and the voters should have the right to say who they want to represent them in a general election,” Barclay said. “We’ll have a better chance to know the candidates with it being a primary instead of a special election.”
New York Republican operatives view Barclay, who represents the district’s population base in Oswego County, as a more nimble politician than Hoffman, who had no campaign experience prior to his special election bid. Unlike Scozzafava, Barclay holds a conservative voting record in the Legislature that should satisfy GOP loyalists and activists alike.
The drawback is that he lost a Republican-held seat in a closely watched 2008 state Senate special election. And the two most recent congressional GOP nominees with backgrounds in the New York Legislature — Scozzafava and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who lost to Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in another special election last year — have fared poorly.
“If he wants to go forward, he’ll be tagged as the Albany guy. Anyone associated with Albany is bad,” said one New York Republican operative.
“There’s a perception that there’s dysfunction in Albany, but I hope my record shows that I’m not part of the problem, that I’ve offered a lot of solutions,” Barclay responded. “My record in Albany and successes there would be an asset in a primary election.”
Doheny, an investment banker who grew up in the district, is also looking to run and plans to launch his campaign in the next month. The runner-up to Scozzafava at last year’s nominating convention, Doheny has the personal resources to self-fund a campaign — and even committed a half-million of his own money to the race last year if he had been nominated. He still maintains $337,000 in his campaign account.
That fundraising ability could come in handy against Owens, who ended last year with just $241,000 in his campaign account.
A New York GOP operative advising one of the campaigns argued that Hoffman’s sudden rise was an anomaly and that he wouldn’t be able to capture lightning in a bottle twice. The operative predicted Hoffman won’t have a lifeline this time from the national conservative grass-roots movement.
“Without the national effort rallying behind Hoffman, he won’t be able to raise the money to compete,” the operative said. “You have [GOP Senate contenders Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco] Rubio in Florida, you have the fight against [Democratic Sen. Arlen] Specter in Pennsylvania, you have conservatives against [Republican Sen. Bob] Bennett in Utah. He’s not the only game in town for conservatives. There are bigger fish at stake than Doug Hoffman.”
Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.
“If they put up another Scozzafava, he should run 3rd party.”
You mean if the voters in the district select in the primary?
So a conservative Republican is standing up to the GOP insiders who screwed him last election, when they chose instead to support an eventual loser RINO?
This is the kind of “rift” I can support.
He’s not really a carpetbagger since they re-drew the district and he’s no longer in the district with the new map. It’s a lot different from the Harold Ford situation.
“I’m going to climb out on a limb and state here on FreeRepublic that if John McCain were to lose the primary to JD Hayworth, HE might go independent!”
It worked for Joe Lieberman.
But isn’t the reverse question relavant? If JD Hayworth loses the primary, will he/should he run as 3rd party, and likely hand the election to the dem?
Maybe it's assumed. Politico just described Scazzafava as a liberal. I bolded it for that reason. She was usually described as a moderate.
Why can’t he run for his district seat? The map was chanaged 8 years ago, it’s not like it happened yesterday.
I’m not sure it really matters though. He’s coming out saying he isn’t going to respect the voters’ choice and if they don’t pick him they could very well end up with a D. That speaks volumes about why he might be running in the first place. What and whom is this about, him or them?
Going independent meant something before the last election cycle. Since then, the independents are coming over to the tea party movement and to have any chance he would have to take major numbers of Dems away from their candidate which is not going to happen because McCain was villified rather soundly and tied to Bush.
Sure. Someone has to stand for the constitution, regardless if they win or lose.
That's only part of the story. It's also about the NYGOP and the NY Conservative Party. If the NYGOP had not been so chock full of RINOs, NY Conservative Party would not have a reason for being.
Doug Hoffman, last November's Conservative Party nominee in New York's 23rd District who is vying again for the seat, is refusing to rule out running as a third-party candidate this year if he fails to win the Republican primary. And his leading backer, Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, told POLITICO that he refuses to endorse any candidate other than Hoffman...What's the link to contribute? Thanks neverdem.
“That’s only part of the story. It’s also about the NYGOP and the NY Conservative Party. If the NYGOP had not been so chock full of RINOs, NY Conservative Party would not have a reason for being”
That was true when the party bosses picked the candidate for the special election. But when there is a primary and voters like you and me pick who we want to run, it’s an entirely different thing to just disregard it. Before he was fighting that party bosses and this time around if he loses, he’ll be fighting the voters. It might just be me, but I thought that selfish, condescending politicians were what we were protesting, not our own will.
I think maybe originally it was the intent.
The one difference with Rubio now is that Jeb Bush is backing him since Jeb dislikes Crist. Jeb’s of the establishment in his own way and really Marco’s rise hasn’t been as difficult because of Jeb using his connections to support him behind the scenes.
Look at the difference between Toomey’s first run and his second run before Specter left the party. The GOP did everything it could to run him off including bring the sitting Republican President and PA Republican Senator in to support Specter. Club for Growth was public enemy number one to them.
In contrast the more of a threat Marco has posed to Crist the more the GOP has backed off and left Crist sort of floundering alone out there.
The one I think the GOP will really try to nail to the wall if polling shows a gap closing will be J.D. Hayworth. If J.D. can give McCain a scare it’ll make the primaries against Specter and Chafee seem cordial in comparison.
” Hoffman ... leading state Assemblyman William Barclay 56 percent to 24 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The poll shows Hoffman with a strong 63 percent favorability rating among Republicans, with just 19 percent viewing him unfavorably. “
Oh, yeah, that’s one hell of a split. Jeez, the Pubbies are so fragmented the Rats should just pop the champagne now.
Give me a break. Desperate reporters, and stupid ones at that.
they just don’t get it, on so many levels the republicans in this state are just plain stupid.
I lived in CT at that time and I can tell you that it worked for him only because the voters did not want a Communist like Ned Lamont. Lieberman was the rightmost candidate of that day. McCain is a different story. He is seen as a closet liberal and a weak guy.
I have been out of Florida for 4 years, so I don’t have the closeup view anymore. The GOP does seems to be backing off.
But I just can’t bring myself to trust them. I still believe it just galls them to no end for conservatives to win.
Thanks for the ping!
this WILL BARCLAY character runs for the state assembly each year as the NARAL endorsed candidate. Endorsed over his DEM opponent.
Nuke him.
Right now, it is just big party-line donors that are keeping Crist afloat.
Talk to any Florida resident who is fully-informed as to the differences between Crist and Rubio and I guarantee you that they'll at least agree that Marco Rubio is the More COnservative and thus more-appealing candidate.
Marco has literally taken his message straight to the people face-to-face while Crist has stayed closer to the politicians.
Eschew JUANnabies.
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