North issues new military threats as tour talks begin

JoongAng Daily ^ | 1/9/2010 | Yoo Jee-ho

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

North Korea yesterday threatened to take military action against South Korea for “anti-republic attempts to topple” the North Korean regime. Issued jointly by the Ministry of People’s Security and the National Security Agency, the threat came on the same day that the two Koreas discussed resuming suspended tours to Mount Kumgang and Kaesong north of the border.

The two North agencies threatened to “mercilessly pulverize” those who attempt to damage the North’s national security by mobilizing all its troops and security forces.

The statement criticized the South Korean Navy’s efforts to defend the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border in the west that the North refuses to recognize. The statement called such naval activities “reckless operations” designed to disturb North Korea.

“We have a world-level ultra-modern striking force and means for protecting security which have neither yet been mentioned nor opened to the public in total,” the North said.

North Korea this year has mixed belligerent rhetoric with conciliatory gestures. The two Koreas yesterday held discussions over suspended tours to Mount Kumgang and Kaesong. But the meeting, first proposed by the North, failed to yield a breakthrough.

[RC one]

"The reality is we are fighting two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the F-22 has not performed a single mission in either theater,"

Robert Gates US Sec. of Defense

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Ping

[TigerLikesRooster]

According to intelligence picked up by a S. Korean news site on N. Korean affairs, N. Korea's plan is to further ratchet up the tension during the first half of this year, and resume talking in the second half. Their expectation is said to be that they could put enough pressure on S. Korea and U.S making them more willing to cave to their demand, before they reap the reward at the following talks later this year.

Since N. Korea has unexpected problem due to the fallout from currency reform debacle, I am not sure that they can stick to this alleged game plan. However, if their calculated provocation does not yield intended result, it could create further problem.

For now, with regard to S. Korea, they keep creating provocation, and issue threatening statements publicly, while pleading for speedy delivery of various economic aids, including food, from the back channel.

Currency reform fiasco definitely radicalized N. Korean population. People are hotly debating on whether it reached the tipping point for open rebellion. I think we are at the initial stage, where state now made itself nearly irrelevant when it comes to N. Koreans making a living. Their last big attempt, currency reform, failed. People 'felt' that they can push back government on a major issue. This feeling is likely to become a consensus among most N. Koreans.

N. Korean state is losing the power of effectively mobilizing and marshaling population to achieve their goal. People will be visibly uncooperative, if not openly rebelling.

[Southack]

Yawn...

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

Do you expect this rebellion soon and is this the reason why the Chinese minister is meeting with the “Dear Leader”?

I think the US and the ROK to begin the prelminary stages of OPLAN-5029 if rebellion is around the corner.

[TigerLikesRooster]

I also think that Chinese envoy talked about economic situation and what it could entail, urging Chia Head that returning to 6-party talks to negotiate away his nukes is the only way to stave off worsening situation. However, Chia Head has not come this far only to throw away nukes. Turning N. Kroea from a hungry extortionist to a hungry helpless panhandler. From a man with some mean leverage to one with little leverage.

As for situation on the ground, I think N. Korean regime is far less sure that things will go back to normal. More uncertain about their future. When winter is over, and people can get out more, population could find more open way to express their frustration. The danger level jumped, i.e., the danger has been realized in the visible form of open revolt against currency reform while, in the past, potential for danger has been quietly creeping up in the background.

[ErnstStavroBlofeld]

I agree. Rebellion is coming very soon. But what will be the reaction of the Army? For me that is the unkown factor. Will they rally around the leader, throw him out?

[TigerLikesRooster]

Military can go either way, I think. Even if military rally around Kim Jong-il, it will only show plainly that Kim no longer holds power. Various factions inside the regime will maneuver themselves to ensure their survival. This creates fierce power struggle. Vested self-interests on power, privilege and money could be threatened and should be guarded. Or they will be all stripped away by new guys in charge. This is the game where failure means complete ruin, frequently death.

Military, security apparatus, party and bureaucrats will clash against each other. In N. Korea, there is no real No. 2 man who can assume leadership when the top guy is no longer viable. The system deliberately weed out anybody who is suspected to have their own powerbase. There is independent power center other than Kim himself. So if Kim is no longer in charge, there would be huge power vacuum, inviting many players to jump in and sort it out in prolonged struggle. For a broken country like N. Korea, it would be really destabilizing.