Replies

1. The payrolls number that is reported monthly is a survey of businesses. The unemployment rate is based off of a survey of households.

2. The -820,000 revision is an adjustment to payrolls data from the period Apr08-Mar09. Essentially, the number of payroll losses were underreported during that time period because goverment models were not sufficiently capturing the rate of decline in business closures. The preliminary adjustment to these number was announced back in October.

3. Where the payrolls number failed to capture the decline in business formation during Apr08-Mar09, this would not have an effect on the HH survey and thuis no effect on the reported UE rate.

4. Because the payroll and unemployment rate are based off of two different surveys, they frequently send different signals when the labor market is at or near a peak or bottom.