Breaking Down the Unemploymnet Numbers (Really up 407,000)

Economic Policy Journal ^ | 2/6/10 | Robert Wenzel

[FromLori]

The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail trade added jobs.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up in January at +203.000, reaching 6.3 million. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of long-term unemployed has risen by 5.0 million.

The nonfarm payroll number for December was revised downward from -85,000 to -150,000

The continued growth in temporary help is indicative of how worried employers are about the current recovery , that is, they continue to use temporary help rather than bringing on new permanent help.

Most bizarre about the January number is that the notorious and mysterious fudge factor, the birth/death index. The January Birth/Death adjustment was -427,000 from +25,000 in December. Got that? Without the Birth/Death downward index adjustment (which is generally positive every other month) employment would have been up by an incredible 407,000. This no doubt is really an adjustment for those who lost seasonal Christmas related jobs, rather than a sudden January collapse in new business hires, with a good dose of direct hands on BLS adjusting to get a near flat unemployment number for January. The fudge factor man at the BLS is obviously one man who will never have to fear ending up on the unemploymnet line.

[FromLori]

ping also check these out

Reinhart : You can rescue one country. You can maybe rescue two. But you can’t rescue all of them.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/02/reinhart-you-can-rescue-one-country-you.html

Up 200%

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-cds-surges-widest-levels-march

Lewis is bringing Paulson and Bernanke into court

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/02/buy-more-popcorn.html

[jessduntno]

Figures lie. Liars figure. These bastards will kill us dead if we don’t get a 2010 clean sweep.

[tobyhill]

“John Schoen: As an example, the BLS uses something called the “birth death” model. to try to account for the gains an losses in small business payrolls that don’t show up in its survey of large company payrolls. (the names refers to the birth and death of small businesses, not people.)

By estimating how many small business have been created – or failed – in a given month, the BLS tries to adjust for the jobs those businesses created or lost. In a good economy, small business creates most of the new jobs, so this part of the model has a big impact. But in an economy like this one, the model has an even harder time assessing the role small business is playing in the job market.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35150298/ns/business-answer_desk/

[joe fonebone]

As of last friday, I am now a member of the newly unemployed...Thanks, both to obama and granholm...anybody need a conveyor estimator?

[Vaduz]

A shoe shine kit or apple tray and hit the streets are about the only jobs left,Obama approves.

[FromLori]

Thank you interesting chat.