Will History Repeat Itself? New Wenzel poll says yes because we’re moving in the wrong direction

The Collins Report ^ | February 4, 2010 | Fritz Wenzel

[jmaroneps37]

There are really only two data points political insiders always want to know when they learn a new poll has come out of the field: What are the job approval numbers and what do voters say about whether the city/county/state/country is headed in the right direction or is off on the wrong track.

Oh, the other stuff is important. But the data from these questions is the very foundation of an officeholder’s existence. The first data point is an officeholder’s job performance rating. Everyone talks about that one.

You may have heard much less about the data from the second question, the “right direction/wrong track question. This data tells us how people feel about things in general – are we headed in the right direction or on the wrong track? Do people feel good about their situation and the situation around them, or not? Are people optimistic about the future, or not? The job performance data tells us whether and how much people blame or credit a particular officeholder for the way things are. This is why these questions are asked together.

Right track/wrong track

The “right direction/wrong track” question can be useful in forecasting political events. It also helps to look at similar data points from the past to see what happened then. For instance, in my most recent Wenzel Strategies polling, just 36% said they think the country is on the right track. The same percentage – 36% – said “right track” about the direction of the country in late October, 2006. A week later voters nationwide tossed Republicans from Congress en masse, ending 12 years of GOP rule in Washington.

I’m not making a prediction here simply noting the historical record: a political atmosphere very much like this 4 years ago gave us a Washingto sea change.

[jmaroneps37]

We are most certainly on the wrong track and we won't get back to the right track until we clean out the House and the Senate.

[ImpBill]

You are so "right on!"

Every two to four years we simply change the bus driver, but the bus keeps heading in the same direction ... over the cliff!

"And the Band played on!"