ND 42 Hoeven
DE 43 Castle
AR 44 (field)
NV 45 (field)
CO 46 Norton
PA 47 Toomey
IN 48 Pence
NY Gillibrand
IL Open
CA Boxer
I don’t see the GOP picking up NY or IL’s senate seats, even in this climate (but then again, who would have foreseen them pickign up MA’s?) California is also a long shot, but more doable, based on the polling. I agree that we will, or at least most likely will, take ND, DE, AR, NV, CO, Pa, and now IN. I would add NH (where Hodes leads the Dem by 9% or so) and MO (where Blunt leads Carnahan by 9%).
Let’s not forget to focus on the AZ and FL Senate races, too. Both will be easy retentions for the GOP, so the question is WHICH GOPer will retain them?
In FL, Rubio is very competitive, and could knock Crist off if we all get behind him and get busy. In AZ, Hayworth could do the same to McCain. Two RINOs down, two net pickups for conservatives.
My analysis assumes holding all the GOP retirement seats, OH, FL, NH, KY, & MO.
This year the Dems play defense.
We definitely can pick up all three of those (IL, NY, CA). None are long shots in my view. Boxer right now is at 46% versus all of her GOP incumbents - she’s in BIG trouble. IL with Kirk is probably as likely a pickup as DE with Castle, if not, more likely. Gillibrand could easily lose if we can get a decent candidate.
NH and MO would make 53 - an enormous net gain for the GOP.
As for the other two internal battles, Rubio will win in FL and McCain has to be favored in AZ. He is an incumbent with a huge warchest and Kyl and Palin will come out strong for him. I don’t see the wisdom in removing McCain if it causes independents to step back from the GOP in the fall which Obama, the national Democrats, and the media will drive home if he does lose.