Posted on 01/19/2010 10:47:53 AM PST by bmweezer
CURRENT COUNT HAS GOP WITH 48 SEATS COME JANUARY 2011
With Scott Brown almost certain to join the U.S. Senate later this week as the GOP's 41st member, the road ahead is still going to be tough for the minority party to regain the majority in November.
In our latest Senate analysis, we now see the Democrats retaining their majority with 52 seats, versus 48 for the GOP.
In the process, we now see Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Delaware and Illinois moving to the GOP, with no GOP seats headed to the donkey party.
However, three Democrat seats are not guaranteed for the blue team: California (Boxer), Indiana (Bayh), and New York (Gillibrand) are currently rated as "LEAN DEM HOLD", while just one GOP seat (Louisiana, Vitter) is ranked similar.
For the GOP to take-over, it would have to take all three of these seats, and retain the seat in Louisiana. A 50/50 tie (2 of the three seats) would give the Dems a working majority thanks to Vice President Biden's vote for the Dems.
That is when we try to flip Pryor in Arkansas.
As long as there are unreliable neo-democrat hybrids like McCain, Collins, Snowe, Lugar and Graham slithering around the Senate, hopes for a majority, or even a filibuster minority, are always tenuous at best, unless voters put in a 66-34 GOP majority.
The Republican primary may take care of this problem. Popular -- and VERY CONSERVATIVE -- J.D. Hayworth is considering taking on McCain.
Cross your fingers...
Gillibrand in NY is vulnerable, especially if Pataki runs.
I don’t know why the fine folks of the great red state of Indiana keep voting for Bayh, but as a New Yorker I don’t think Gillibrand is in trouble yet. A good GOP candidate has yet to sign up to take her on, and I just don’t see a lot of bench strength.
Giuliani would kill her but he’s already said no. Pataki would also have a good shot, maybe Faso will take another shot at statewide office. Lazio has a good shot at rubbing out Patterson, and perhaps with a Brown win, it will encourage Cuomo to take on Patterson - he’ll argue that the Dums need a stronger candidate than Patterson. Lazio could beat Patterson, but I can’t see him beating Cuomo. Cuomo is probably thinking the same thing, but needs to be able to endorse Ford against Gillibrand to split the race-baters and nullify the race card that Dumocrats just love to play.
If Gillibrand and Ford get into a real ugly fight, that could open up an opportunity for a GOP Senate challenge. Black male vs white female could get nasty. Dums would blow a lot of money and the wounds could be pretty severe, especially if Cuomo and Patterson flail away at each other. Almost like tag-team wrestling with 2 fights going on at the same time.
That’s why the Democrats can’t seem to win the mayor’s office in NYC - the Dum primary always has a Jew, a Latino and a black, and whoever wins the other two won’t vote for him. A brutal Senate and Gubernatorial primary fight could drain a lot of money and spill a lot of blood. Then the GOP has a good chance.
Starting tomorrow we need to begin cheering on Harold Ford and get him amped up. C’mon, Harold - Bring it!!!
Ha ha.
52 (Ds, an I and an S) to 48 Rs.
I’ll take it!
I am suppressing laughter, but I am smiling; does this make me a bad person?
I'm with you. If Massachusetts is in play for us, any Dem seat is in play. All we need is for the GOP leadership to do the right ... um ... oopsie ... never mind.
“With the likes of McCain, Collins, Snowe, Graham and company we might be better off with 48 than a majority.”
We should be thankful for Collins and Snowe, they do what they can (as little as you might think it is) coming from a tough state.
The problem is the likes of McCain and Graham - surely Arizona and South Carolina can do better. RINO’s from blueish-purple states I can tolerate; RINOs from red states are the scourge of the GOP.
Same with Evan Bayh - Indiana is as red a state as any, why do you guys keep electing this schmuck? Tell you what, I’ll trade you a Colts win over the Jets, for running Bayh out of the Senate? Waddayaasay?
As long as Indiana keeps electing Bayh we shouldn’t be complaining about Snowe and Collins.
Or Frank “The Cadaver” Lautenberg? lol
it is better than the article indicated.
ny, indiana, cal (i can hope) conn is not safe for the rats
at least they will not be able to do stupid things anymore and a bunch of rats are up in 2012 and 14.
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