Posted on 01/19/2010 10:47:53 AM PST by bmweezer
CURRENT COUNT HAS GOP WITH 48 SEATS COME JANUARY 2011
With Scott Brown almost certain to join the U.S. Senate later this week as the GOP's 41st member, the road ahead is still going to be tough for the minority party to regain the majority in November.
In our latest Senate analysis, we now see the Democrats retaining their majority with 52 seats, versus 48 for the GOP.
In the process, we now see Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Delaware and Illinois moving to the GOP, with no GOP seats headed to the donkey party.
However, three Democrat seats are not guaranteed for the blue team: California (Boxer), Indiana (Bayh), and New York (Gillibrand) are currently rated as "LEAN DEM HOLD", while just one GOP seat (Louisiana, Vitter) is ranked similar.
For the GOP to take-over, it would have to take all three of these seats, and retain the seat in Louisiana. A 50/50 tie (2 of the three seats) would give the Dems a working majority thanks to Vice President Biden's vote for the Dems.
So we take over the House easily at this rate.
I would be happy to give the Dems. Arizona in order to be rid of McCain. That would be the best thing for the Repub. in next election.
I like the fact that they have Pa going pubbie. That means no more Specter and hello to Pat Toomey. A good conservative. This could be a new magic bullet theory for Specter to decipher...
Missouri might be lost as the Carnahan family is never seriously investigated and the GOP never lets the public know what the real story is.
“with no GOP seats headed to the donkey party.”
Obviously he isn’t paying attention to current events.
2nd...It’s the JACKASS Party
With the likes of McCain, Collins, Snowe, Graham and company we might be better off with 48 than a majority.
Does this assume that Lieberman continues to caucus with the Dems?
That means we need to contest not just the easy seats. No one believed MA could be won. Provided Brown wins or comes close today that means any seat should be up for grabs with the right candidate and enough money and effort. I also imagine it will get worse because Obama doesn’t show any evidence of stopping his far left train and he won’t until Democrat reps begin running for cover and leaving his political suicide pact. If they think they are going to persue Immigration reform after this mess then they are nuts. We don’t even have to talk about Cap and Trade, I don’t see any Democrat touching it now.
G OP Nation, get the hell out of the way.
GOP Nation, get the hell out of the way.
I miss Santorum.
Not to be morbid, but what’s the life expectancy of an individual Robert Byrd’s age?
What a genius. Where would we be without the wisdom of 'analysts' such as this dude? I just knew Republicans would close that 20 senator gap in one election year. Thought it would be easy as pie.
I agree. It does no good to have a numerical majority of Repub. with McCain because the Dems. will still have a voting majority with McCain gathering enough of his fellow liberal Repubs. to vote with Dems. This is what he did the last time Repub. had the majority.
Isn’t the Feingold seat within reach?
Bear in mind that 2004 was not a bad year for GOP, thus there aren’t a lot of seats to pick up in 2010. From that perspective picking up 8 is pretty good. It could get even better, but that would only happen if the country goes totally into the pooper, and I don’t want that.
On the other hand, 2006 was a bad year for GOP thus the 2012 rota has Dums outnumbering GOP something like 25-9, so there is fertile territory for pick ups. If we go into 2012 trailing 52-48 with the Dums exposed in 25/34 seats, majority should be pretty well guaranteed. I’ll take 8 pickups in 2010.
The House looks like it's going to be bloodbath similar to '94. And, I think it could actually be worse than '94 - remember, in '94, the economy had actually recovered from the Bush recession. I think unemployment was less than 5.7%. In November of next year, I think it's likely that unemployment will still be close to 10%.
Ah yeah, that is a bit too morbid...
If the long-term goal is to oust 0bama in ‘12, it might be better that the dims retain razor-thin unworkable majorities until that election. That way they have to eat the failures that will continue as long as Barry is prez.
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