Posted on 01/17/2010 11:30:02 AM PST by libh8er
A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.
Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president’s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president’s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.
47% of Brown’s supporters say that taxes, jobs, and the economy represent the most important issue to them in this race, while half of Coakley’s supporters say that healthcare reform is most important to them. Undecided voters are nearly evenly split between the two issues—40% say they’re most concerned with taxes, jobs, and the economy with 37% saying that healthcare reform that most concerns them. “For Coakley to have a chance, she needs to convince voters that the Democratic party’s agenda for the economy is the right one, and she needs to do it fast,” said MRG’s executive director, Matt Fitch.
The recent dust-up between the candidates over abortion laws seems to have had minimal impact on the race. Only 8% of Brown’s supporters and 5% of Coakley’s supporters say it’s the most important issue to them.
The endorsement in Medford on January 7 of Martha Coakley by members of Senator Ted Kennedy’s family appears to have had little effect on most voters and to have backfired with others. 55% said that it was not important to them, but 27% said it made them less likely to vote for Coakley, while only 18% said it made them more likely to vote for her. As for undecided voters, more than two-thirds said the endorsement was not important. “The Kennedy family endorsement seems to have hurt more than it helped Coakley, despite the popularity of the Kennedys in the state and in Medford,” said Allison Goldsberry, Editor of InsideMedford.com.
What seems to tip the race in Brown’s favor most is his popularity among Moderates, Independents, and men, and Coakley’s lack of an advantage among women. Brown nearly doubles Coakley’s total among Moderates, 62% – 32%, and has an even bigger margin among Independents, 64% – 26%. There’s also a one-way gender effect that favors Brown, who holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Coakley among men while women are split evenly between the two candidates. Brown does best among white voters, while Coakley leads among non-whites, suggesting that minority turnout may play a crucial role on election day. Brown is also leading among all age groups.
Methodology
MRG surveyed 565 likely voters between 5:00 P.M. and 8:45 P.M. on January 15, 2010 using touch-tone polling technology. The margin of error is +/– 4.1%. Some columns do not sum to 100% due to rounding.
* Click here to view the poll questions, results, and demos
Merriman River Group, founded in 1998, is a full service consulting organization specializing in election management, opinion research and communication. In 2008 and 2009, MRG provided nationally representative telephone survey data for the for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership’s annual National Leadership Index: A National Study of Confidence in Leadership.
InsideMedford.com is Medford’s first and only exclusively online news source. It was founded in 2007 by Allison Goldsberry, a former newspaper reporter and T.V. journalist.
For interviews, please contact Allison Goldsberry at (781) 526-1997.
The wat RR meant it to be.Bring them to you not you to them.
I am not falling for this!
Watch for vans of voters, then follow the van to see if they go to another polling place.
“I still can’t understand this obsession everyone seems to have with InTrade.”
The “obsession” comes from the fact that folks put their money where their mouth is at InTrade. Anecdotes are fun to hear, and polls can vary from very accurate to totally worthless; but money talks.
Of course, InTrade can be manipulated, and even when it is not manipulated it reflect only the opinions of its participants.
Ole carl has a reason for saying its a dead heat,his wife worked on the bamsters campaign.He’s a leftie screw.
Quit worrying about Intratrade folks. It is a reflection of the speculation by investors. Not any kind of scientific predictor of election outcomes. Remember just last Nov09,in the 2 senate races. Intratrade was close even after the polls closed. Then once the Repub starting winning, it swung with the news.
Almost every scientific poll within the last 3-4 days has Brown tied or ahead. In some case double digit leads for Brown. Take the preponderance of all the evidence, and it looks very very good for Brown. Turnout will be key, and this is a special election, so very hard to judge. My opinion is the Brown supporters are much more energized and willing to actually get out and vote on Tuesday. I believe he will win by a fairly solid margin on Tuesday, in the range of 4-7 points.
Outside the margin of ACORN! LOL! I wish it would get reported that way.
I live in California, and wish we had Scott Brown, here!!! I donated!
Re- Corzine;
Do you remember what the polls said the weekend before in New Jersey? Is anything different in this race that wouldn’t apply?
How far off were they?
I have a feeling that ACORN and the Unions are so aggressive and pushy, that many of the Democrats that have made up their minds to vote for Brown, actually lie about it so that they don’t have to feel pressured.
If they said they were voting for Brown, the Unions and ACORN would be pressuring them to change their vote. So when Polsters call it is much easier to just lie and say they are voting for Coakley.
If she did, it was under the cover of darkness, with an assumed name.
She refused to debate on TV unless it was exactly on her terms. She went days without venturing out in public. When she did appear, it was typically to accept endorsements from elected officials or union heads in front of supportive crowds.
She may have gone the first month of the campaign without ever meeting an honest-to-goodness rank-and-file undecided resident.
.
Massachusetts sees this as JFK running against The Swimmer
No contest
They equate Brown to JFK ?
Kennedy against Kennedy? I’m not familiar with that but I don’t hear talk radio either.
.
JFK proposed and pushed through huge income taxcuts well before Ronald Reagan -
His comment was:
“A rising tide lifts all boats.”
The Swimmer never agreed with or served like JFK did
Can’t wait for Tuesday!!! Teddy is turning in his grave LOL!
Amazing the things you can remember!
Teddy was a liar, cheater and plagiarizer in college if I recall correctly, a killer, a boozer and an ANTI-Catholic in his lifestyle.
[Teddy is turning in his grave LOL!]
That would cause an earthquake! - wait......!!
.
Kicked out of two (2) universities I believe
(FReepers - correct me if I am wrong in any way)
He hired another student to take his Spanish exam - and got caught
Shortest ‘Nam tour ever - Got back to US and received a discharge without any bogus 3 PHs too
Think he was either kicked out of other schools or his father donated to keep him in.
Even the lib polls have Brown winning. Surge baby- surge!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.