Posted on 01/17/2010 11:30:02 AM PST by libh8er
A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group (MRG) and InsideMedford.com indicates that Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 50.8% – 41.2% in the contest to fill the seat of the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Liberty Party candidate Joe Kennedy pulls in just 1.8% support, while 6.2% of voters are still not sure. Brown and Coakley both have most of their supporters locked in. 98% of both candidate’s supporters say they are definitely or probably going to vote for their candidate. In contrast, 22% of Kennedy’s supporters are just leaning toward him, suggesting that Brown and Coakley may both want to take aim at swaying those voters.
Not surprisingly, nearly all of Coakley’s supporters approve of President Obama’s job performance, while three-quarters of Brown’s supporters disapprove. Coakley may see a glimmer of hope in the fact that more than two-thirds of undecided voters approve of the president’s job performance while only 6% disapprove, especially in light of the president’s swing through the state to campaign for her later today.
47% of Brown’s supporters say that taxes, jobs, and the economy represent the most important issue to them in this race, while half of Coakley’s supporters say that healthcare reform is most important to them. Undecided voters are nearly evenly split between the two issues—40% say they’re most concerned with taxes, jobs, and the economy with 37% saying that healthcare reform that most concerns them. “For Coakley to have a chance, she needs to convince voters that the Democratic party’s agenda for the economy is the right one, and she needs to do it fast,” said MRG’s executive director, Matt Fitch.
The recent dust-up between the candidates over abortion laws seems to have had minimal impact on the race. Only 8% of Brown’s supporters and 5% of Coakley’s supporters say it’s the most important issue to them.
The endorsement in Medford on January 7 of Martha Coakley by members of Senator Ted Kennedy’s family appears to have had little effect on most voters and to have backfired with others. 55% said that it was not important to them, but 27% said it made them less likely to vote for Coakley, while only 18% said it made them more likely to vote for her. As for undecided voters, more than two-thirds said the endorsement was not important. “The Kennedy family endorsement seems to have hurt more than it helped Coakley, despite the popularity of the Kennedys in the state and in Medford,” said Allison Goldsberry, Editor of InsideMedford.com.
What seems to tip the race in Brown’s favor most is his popularity among Moderates, Independents, and men, and Coakley’s lack of an advantage among women. Brown nearly doubles Coakley’s total among Moderates, 62% – 32%, and has an even bigger margin among Independents, 64% – 26%. There’s also a one-way gender effect that favors Brown, who holds a nearly two-to-one lead over Coakley among men while women are split evenly between the two candidates. Brown does best among white voters, while Coakley leads among non-whites, suggesting that minority turnout may play a crucial role on election day. Brown is also leading among all age groups.
Methodology
MRG surveyed 565 likely voters between 5:00 P.M. and 8:45 P.M. on January 15, 2010 using touch-tone polling technology. The margin of error is +/– 4.1%. Some columns do not sum to 100% due to rounding.
* Click here to view the poll questions, results, and demos
Merriman River Group, founded in 1998, is a full service consulting organization specializing in election management, opinion research and communication. In 2008 and 2009, MRG provided nationally representative telephone survey data for the for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership’s annual National Leadership Index: A National Study of Confidence in Leadership.
InsideMedford.com is Medford’s first and only exclusively online news source. It was founded in 2007 by Allison Goldsberry, a former newspaper reporter and T.V. journalist.
For interviews, please contact Allison Goldsberry at (781) 526-1997.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus
Dead Kennedy himself will stick his hand out of the dirt and cast a 1000 votes for Coakley.
Should this be in Breaking News?
I am worried that this is all a ruse to get the GOP side’s hopes up and come Election Day results, the Dems win/keep the seat after-all.
That’s what I’ve been waiting to see. It was advertised for 1:00 PM Eastern, but a thread today said that’s when they’re opening the doors. Obama’s not supposed to appear until 3 (shortly). I’m really curious to hear/see about the crowd, and how ‘spontaneous’ the reactions are.
Carl Cameron, of FOX, also called it a dead heat this morning. They are wrong.
He has to. Has to keep the Rat faithful from giving up prior to voting Tuesday.
God bless!
vaudine
God bless you!! So many talk the talk but people like you walk the walk. You’re a great American!
Right no longer a dead heat...PPP wouldn’t put out there numbers last night but if you read their info closely...it was Brown 58 Coakley 41
What is hidden beneath those two-thirds is while they approve of Zero, they hate the health bill. That is why they are undecided. They realize if they vote against Coakley the bill is doomed which will doom Zero. At the same time they know if the vote for Coakley their health care is either going to disappear or the cost for it will skyrocket. So it is down to Zero or their pocket. I wonder which will win.
FReep mail me if you want on/off the list.
“Carl Cameron, of FOX, also called it a dead heat this morning. They are wrong.”
The human mind doesn’t turn on a dime. The pros are having a very hard time wrapping their minds around the sea change in MA. They’ll get there sometime on Wednesday.
“.it was Brown 58 Coakley 41’
There is a storm on the horizon.... and none too soon.
350 miles away and I’m still getting butterflies...
“The human mind doesn’t turn on a dime.”
My wife would argue that mine does... LOL
Clarity is just around the corner for a good many folks.... I hope it makes their brains hurt..
We need to be careful - libs might have set a “cheating trap” with Unions and ACORN... it’s hard for our side to poll the dead.
YOU, vaudine - are right about this...
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