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Coping With The Great American SSN Shortage
The Strategy Page ^ | 1/12/2010 | The Strategy Aage

Posted on 01/12/2010 6:21:12 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld

The U.S. Navy is facing a temporary SSN (nuclear attack submarine) shortage, and there is no solution that will not involve some pain. The problem is that new Virginia class subs cannot be built quickly enough to replace all the Cold War era Los Angeles class boats that have to retire. Even that will be delayed, at least for 16 Los Angeles class subs, that will get enough refurb to keep them at sea for up to two more years. Meanwhile, many of the shipyards used to build all those Los Angeles class boats, were discarded as part of the Peace Dividend for winning the Cold War. The shortage will begin in 2022, when the number of SSNs will fall below 48. The bottom will be in 2028, when only 41 SSNs will be available, and the shortage won't end until 2034. While keeping boats at sea more than six months per cruise will insure that all current requirements (that need about ten boats at sea at any given time) are met, the navy won’t be able to meet its wartime need for 35 boats. Keep in mind that a certain number of boats are always laid up for upgrades, maintenance or repairs. And some of this work can be speeded up, or even put aside, to get boats to sea in wartime, or a major crises.

(Excerpt) Read more at strategypage.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Technical
KEYWORDS: attacksubmarines; losangelesclass; peacedividend; ssn; submarines; usnavy

1 posted on 01/12/2010 6:21:13 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: sonofstrangelove

This already, and Obama in office less than a year.


2 posted on 01/12/2010 6:22:47 PM PST by RogerQ
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To: sonofstrangelove; Jeff Head

Yep, the old Peace Dividend/BRACs bite us on the butt yet again!


3 posted on 01/12/2010 6:22:54 PM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: sonofstrangelove

That sure makes me feel old. When I was serving on my Skipjack-class boat, the LA class was new and state of the art. We called them “the showboats” in New London because every visiting brass wanted to tour one.


4 posted on 01/12/2010 6:26:19 PM PST by Bryanw92 (Imagine a day when the politicians have to hold a bake sale to pay for votes!)
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To: sonofstrangelove

It doesn’t sound like a case of not enough ship yards. It sounds like they just didn’t order enough boats soon enough.


5 posted on 01/12/2010 6:28:14 PM PST by SeeSharp
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To: sonofstrangelove
,i>Meanwhile, many of the shipyards used to build all those Los Angeles class boats, were discarded as part of the Peace Dividend for winning the Cold War.

I always thought those rounds of base closings were a dumb move. As is often said about land: they aren't making any more of it. The government should have held onto the land and kept the base facilities in a condition for reopening if needed, or simply used them on a scaled down basis.

There was never any great civilian need for the land, other than the dollar signs in the eyes of state and municipal officials and real estate agents.

6 posted on 01/12/2010 7:13:06 PM PST by Will88
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To: sonofstrangelove

When I saw the headline, I thought it meant we were running out of social security numbers....


7 posted on 01/12/2010 7:15:24 PM PST by Koblenz (The Dem Platform, condensed: 1. Tax and Spend. 2. Cut and Run. 3. Man on Man)
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To: Koblenz

“....I thought it meant we were running out of social security numbers....”

That’s what I thought, too!


8 posted on 01/12/2010 7:26:48 PM PST by july4thfreedomfoundation (A Jimmy Carter got us a Ronald Reagan.....a Barack Obama will get us a Sarah Palin)
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To: sonofstrangelove
Polaris Submarine Comic Book Ad Pictures, Images and Photos

Obama found a competitive bidder to those expensive Virginia class boats.

9 posted on 01/12/2010 7:28:55 PM PST by Snickering Hound
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To: sonofstrangelove
Meanwhile, many of the shipyards used to build all those Los Angeles class boats, were discarded as part of the Peace Dividend for winning the Cold War.

Huh? I thought the same 2 yards that built the Los Angeles-class boats are the same ones teaming up to build the Virginia-class subs.

10 posted on 01/12/2010 7:38:29 PM PST by Al B. (Sarah Palin: Government "can't make you happy or healthy or wealthy or wise".)
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To: sonofstrangelove
The LA Class sub is still better than any other navy is able to put to sea.

It's not just depth and speed that counts.

Still, how THE HELL does the Pentagon think 48 boats is enough? Where is Reagans' 600 ship Navy and what the HELL has become of the Admiralty that they would sign off on this?

They should be screaming from the rooftops that core national security interests have been compromised.

If the US Navy loses dominance of the seas, the nation will suffer severely...on an order that has never before been considered in our entire national history.

This nation was BUILT on the US Navy's dominance...from the time shortly after the Revolutionary War...through the Great White Fleet...WWI...WWII...and all other crises.

THERE IS NO POWER WITHOUT SEA POWER.

11 posted on 01/12/2010 7:44:14 PM PST by Mariner
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To: sonofstrangelove

Difficult call. We are not fighting the Soviet Union or China any more, at least not militarily. Tom Clancy’s book Submarine opened with an interview with an anonymous USN officer right after Argentina invaded the Falklands Islands. According to Clancy, the officer said, “The British will announce that they have an attack sub in the area.”

“Do they?”

“Doesn’t matter. The threat is enough.”

It wasn’t enough. No one really understood it, at least until HMS Conqueror sank the Belgrano. Then the Argentines recalled their navy. Conqueror was a simple equation: you have a chihuahua, we have a rugby team. The Argentines attacked HMS Sheffield by air. This further demonstrates my opinion that, given a limited budget, the Navy is better off spending money on carrier battle groups. Carriers are multi-purpose ships. Among other things, they can destroy anything that floats. They can get submarines, too, or else guide a flotilla of destroyers to the enemy.

I love the subs; they are amazing ships. But air superiority is the trump.


12 posted on 01/12/2010 8:06:57 PM PST by sig226 (Bring back Jimmy Carter!)
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To: sonofstrangelove
The shortage is due to congress limiting production to two hulls a year due to the high cost and high cost overruns. They initially planned to spend about 1.5 billion each the cost is current around 2. The LA fleet is reaching the end of its 25 year design life and they are being decommissioned at a faster rate then new construction. Incidentally if the production rate were increased it would further reduce cost.

While the 688 class is still a highly capable platform the age is starting to become apparent in increased maintance requirements.

13 posted on 01/12/2010 8:18:24 PM PST by Roland
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To: Al B.

Correct.


14 posted on 01/12/2010 8:28:22 PM PST by TheUndead (...it's all downhill from here.)
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To: Roland

“...due to the high cost and high cost overruns.”

ummm, I beg to differ. We build ‘em at the budget that was projected, and ahead of schedule.


15 posted on 01/12/2010 8:31:35 PM PST by TheUndead (...it's all downhill from here.)
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To: Al B.

Newport News and Groton.


16 posted on 01/12/2010 8:31:52 PM PST by bmwcyle (Free the Navy Seals)
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To: sonofstrangelove; Salamander; Markos33; Slings and Arrows

Misread the title. I thought they were running out of Social Security Numbers.

I was going to volunteer to send mine back.


17 posted on 01/12/2010 8:34:52 PM PST by shibumi (" ..... then we will fight in the shade.")
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To: sig226
...the Navy is better off spending money on carrier battle groups. Carriers are multi-purpose ships. Among other things, they can destroy anything that floats. They can get submarines, too, or else guide a flotilla of destroyers to the enemy.

I love the subs; they are amazing ships. But air superiority is the trump.


I served on the USS Memphis, SSN 691 in the 1980's, and I can tell you from personal experience, the surface Navy could not find us during war games, even with restrictions.

We were restricted to a grid on a map. We were restricted to what depth we could go. We even had a noise maker attached to our hull so that we would "sound like a soviet wessle", BUT we still got within a half mile (more then close enough) of the Aircraft carrier and "sunk" her multiple times with our 3" launcher.

It was only AFTER we launched our Pyrotecnics, that the helicopters would swoop in, triangulate and "get" us.

I'm not saying we don't need air power, because obviously that too is important, but it is ignorant to overlook how dangerous submarines are to all of the targets...er...I mean surface vessels that are out there.
18 posted on 01/12/2010 9:00:44 PM PST by ScubieNuc
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To: TheUndead
Thanks for correcting me, the Missouri is under budget and hopefully will stay that way.
Either way there is a shortage of subs. The boats are currently not able to meet all tasking requests. I think that the number is around 60% now. I’m also under the opinion that the boats are being cycled fairly hard to achieve that number. I can attest to that as I just finished a tour on Buffalo (ssn-715) and am currently in the middle of a pcs. Reducing the number to 48 is ridiculous. O well I guess that the social spending is more important. /sarc
19 posted on 01/12/2010 10:15:11 PM PST by Roland
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To: Snickering Hound

Good one.


20 posted on 01/13/2010 3:29:51 AM PST by wally_bert (It's sheer elegance in its simplicity! - The Middleman)
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