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Poll: Dem Coakley Leads GOPer Brown In MA-SEN Race, But Low Turnout Could Help Brown
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com ^ | January 5, 2010, 9:18AM | TPM

Posted on 01/05/2010 7:28:36 AM PST by Maelstorm

The new Rasmussen poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election, which will be held two weeks from today, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley an initial lead over Republican Scott Brown. But it might not be an automatic landslide in this Democratic-leaning state, with GOP voters disproportionately more enthusiastic in what could be a low-turnout election.

The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown's supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat."


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Massachusetts
KEYWORDS: 2009polls; brown; coakley; ma2010; scottbrown; senate; voterturnout
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http://www.brownforussenate.com/

Brown for US Senate |

Scott Brown is within two points when considering those who are certain to show up to vote. Don't let anyone fool you this race can be won.

1 posted on 01/05/2010 7:28:37 AM PST by Maelstorm
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To: Maelstorm

YOu really have to wonder, how bad must it get before people realize that there is no “moderate” Demoncrat and conservatives have the answer? Are people so BRAIN DEAD? What does it take?


2 posted on 01/05/2010 7:30:39 AM PST by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: Maelstorm

This guy could win. We need to get talk radio people to talk about him and to get people to donate. A lot of MA people hate Deval Patrick aka Obama Jr.


3 posted on 01/05/2010 7:32:28 AM PST by Frantzie (TV - sending Americans towards islamic serfdom - Cancel TV service NOW)
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To: Frantzie

We HAVE to get him our support. He needs cash, and he needs it quickly. His vote on healthcare will save our union. No kidding. This is very important.

So far as I am concerned, his single vote on that bill is worth whatever else he does for the remainder of his term.

Tell your friends in MA to vote for him; and tell the Dems that Joe Kennedy is running for them. (Actually Kennedy is the third party candidate, with no relation to THE swimmer.)


4 posted on 01/05/2010 7:41:08 AM PST by Vermont Lt (I have lived here all my life, and now is the first time I am ashamed of my country)
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To: Frantzie

Brown is going to win this!


5 posted on 01/05/2010 7:41:25 AM PST by Boardwalk
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To: Vermont Lt

Doctors and nurses around the USA should be helping Scott. They are going to be SO screwed if ObamaCare passes.


6 posted on 01/05/2010 7:45:41 AM PST by Frantzie (TV - sending Americans towards islamic serfdom - Cancel TV service NOW)
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To: Vermont Lt

Kennedy is a former Dem and, I believe, a stalking horse. He is pretending to be a tea partyier.


7 posted on 01/05/2010 8:35:55 AM PST by sportutegrl (I was for Sarah Palin before being for Sarah was cool.)
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To: Maelstorm; ProCivitas; Arkan67; pabianice; jacknhoo; Lady Jag; UpAndComing; RedSoxBatgirl; ...
Pray for a blizzard. Brown can win this one.

What matters is not what the polls say: what matters is WHO VOTES. It's a true "Tortoise-and-the-Hare" situation.

The over-all turn-out? Lowest ever, let us hope, and the lower the better.

The key factors are that the Democrats' activist core is enervated, disillusioned, disappointed and dissipated. THEY'LL STAY HOME WARMING THEIR FANNIES BY THEIR SOLAR PANELS.

The Republicans are energized. THEY'LL SHOW UP IN SNOWMOBILES.

(Do It!)

PRAY FOR SNOW!

8 posted on 01/05/2010 8:49:21 AM PST by Mrs. Don-o (Gimli to Aragorn: "Certainty of death. ..Small chance of success.... What are we waiting for?")
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To: nmh

I don’t know..it’s mind boggling. Spoke with my sis in law in Mass. the other day. She thinks the healthcare is wrong, the country is going the wrong way, she’s upset about everything..but who is she going to vote for? COAKLEY, because she thinks she’s PASSIONATE. That was what she said, PASSIONATE. How can you argue with such stupidity?


9 posted on 01/05/2010 8:55:09 AM PST by Hildy (This Christmas, the Democrats have given America the one gift that keeps on taking.)
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To: Maelstorm

Hey, the fact that at this point he’s 4% above the tally of any recent Republican candidate is a good thing. I’m still hoping that there will be some stupid Dems who will vote for Joe Kennedy, thinking they’re voting to continue the ‘legacy’. Since those would have been Coakley votes, it could only help Scott!


10 posted on 01/05/2010 8:57:14 AM PST by SuziQ
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To: Maelstorm

Let’s hope that Messrs, Obama, Biden, Kerry and Dodd do their best to campaign in Mass. for Coakley. That should be enough to put Brown over the top.


11 posted on 01/05/2010 8:57:16 AM PST by kenmcg (THE)
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To: Mrs. Don-o

I’m not praying for snow, because the suburban voters are the ones more likely to vote for Scott, and they have to DRIVE to the polls!


12 posted on 01/05/2010 8:59:37 AM PST by SuziQ
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To: Hildy

So WHY is she voting for someone that will usher in more the same. Exploit her “PASSION” and get her THINKING!!


13 posted on 01/05/2010 9:28:42 AM PST by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: gracex77; Graing; gramcam; Granholmwatch; grellis; guinness4strength; Gunslingers; harperflow; ...
Heads Up! Power Up! Let's help make it happen!

Election January 19
Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate Seat
Goes Republican!!

Can we imagine 41 votes on the Republican side, which means filibuster, which means No cloture, which means No ObamaCare, ObamaDontCare, ReidPelosiCare, or WhatevertheHellCare they call it?

Imagine!

Scott Brown!

Do Something About It!

(If I pinged you before, please forgive me: I'm trying to get good coverage for this very hopeful--- and significant --- challenger.)


From Scott Brown’s campaign office:

"Scott is a conservative. In fact, he will be the most conservative Senator elected from MA since . . . Senator John F. Kennedy, who nowadays would be denounced by liberals as "a dangerous right-winger." JFK loved our country, and he knew that in a recession you don't raise taxes -- instead, you cut them. And as a man with chronic ailments, JFK had no desire to our health system into one resembling Bulgaria's.

"Scott Brown is committed to voting to repeal the health care monstrosity Reid and Pelosi are busy hatching. He's against the Cap-and-Tax legislation. He's in favor of reducing our taxes. And, unlike Obama, he's not afraid to use the phrase "war on terror."

"You may ask . . . What about Scott's opponent, one Martha Coakley? She's another one of those Massachusetts liberals (think: John Kerry) whose ambitions are as unlimited as her talents are nonexistent. As a member of the Massachusetts legal community, she specialized in ferocious prosecutions of people who were clearly innocent."

Do Something About It!

14 posted on 01/05/2010 9:33:54 AM PST by Mrs. Don-o (Gimli to Aragorn: "Certainty of death. ..Small chance of success.... What are we waiting for?")
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To: sportutegrl
Kennedy is a former Dem and, I believe, a stalking horse. He is pretending to be a tea partyier.

Kennedy = Daggett. Didn't work then; we can only hope that it won't work this time, either.

15 posted on 01/05/2010 9:34:57 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: SuziQ

Snow won’t stop Brown supporters; but a cold rain or biting wind out of the northwest would be ideal for suppressing lukewarm rat vote.


16 posted on 01/05/2010 9:36:26 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Hildy
Work on your sis and her hubby too..

I am serious, buy them Sarah's book, it is a chick book, maybe Glenn's book, she needs to know who she is screwing is our parents who may need the health care and in the long term the kids, yours, mine and hers. I bet she balances her checkbook, tell here Martha will not @ the Federal Level.

17 posted on 01/05/2010 9:49:49 AM PST by taildragger (Palin/Mulally 2012)
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To: Hildy
Work on your sis and her hubby too..

I am serious, buy them Sarah's book, it is a chick book, maybe Glenn's book, she needs to know who she is screwing is our parents who may need the health care and in the long term the kids, yours, mine and hers. I bet she balances her checkbook, tell here Martha will not @ the Federal Level.

18 posted on 01/05/2010 9:49:57 AM PST by taildragger (Palin/Mulally 2012)
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To: Maelstorm

What a bunch of losers and defeatists on this thread. Don’t they realize that Brown is within two points of Coakley with likley voters? That’s phenomenal leading into an election here in MA.

Please STFU while more patriotic Freepers carry on the fight - especially those of you who don’t have a dog in this fight!

See: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2421374/posts
for a more optimistic take on this election.


19 posted on 01/05/2010 9:53:19 AM PST by balls
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To: balls
Don’t they realize that Brown is within two points of Coakley with likley voters?

Not only that, but here in MA as in NJ the thuggery effect of polls is live and strong: A voter answering the caller's questions does not know if his union is behind the "poll", and really performing some card-checking.

20 posted on 01/05/2010 10:10:09 AM PST by C210N (A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take everything you have)
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