Brown’s departure leaves wide open Congressional race

Palmetto Scoop ^ | 01/04/10 | Adam Fogle

[freespirited]

It’s been just over 12 hours since The Palmetto Scoop broke the news that South Carolina Congressman Henry Brown would not seek re-election and already a few contenders are considering a run for the seat.

The man who held the 1st district seat in the early 1980s, Tommy Hartnett, told Politico on Monday he was weighing a run at reclaiming his old office.

”It’s something I’m going to look at and make a decision on pretty quickly,” Hartnett said. Hartnett, 68, represented the Charleston district from 1981 to 1987.

”Life gives you an opportunity to learn along the way,” he said. “You need a bit of gray hair. I know the committee system. I know how it works on the floor. And I know South Carolina, I know the first district.”

The son of popular former U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond may also launch a campaign to replace Brown. Paul Thurmond, a Charleston attorney and county council member, is widely rumored to be jumping into the race.

Another possible contender, State Rep. Alan Clemmons (R-Horry), at first said “I’m thinking about it,” but quickly recanted. “I have far to much work to do in the SC House to give up my seat now to run for Congress,” he wrote on Twitter.

Brown issued a statement Monday morning on his decision to retire at the end of his term.

“It is my hope and belief that by publicly stating my intentions at this time, it will allow interested individuals adequate time to contemplate running and sufficient time to organize and launch a campaign if they indeed feel led to do so,” Brown said, noting that he had first considered retiring in 2008. “I am looking forward to spending more time at my family farm and to enjoying life without the extensive travel demands that are so much a part of public service today.”

One of the four Republicans that had already announced against Brown, Carroll Campbell III, also issued a statement.

“As a personal donor and supporter of Mr. Brown’s previous runs for public office, I appreciate the fact that Henry is putting his state and his party first in this decision,” said Campbell, son of the late former governor. “I also want to thank Congressman Brown for his service to South Carolina and the Republican Party.”

There are still expectations that another big name or two could jump into the Republican primary, making this one of the most exciting races on the June ballot.

[freespirited]

So who is best, SC Freepers?

[onedoug]

You guys are in the 4th Congressional District

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’m leaning to Tumpy Campbell. Paul Thurmond is also interesting. I’m surprised Tommy Hartnett wants to make a comeback, he has the distinction of being the first Republican to hold this seat since the late 19th century. He’d probably be better off enjoying his retirement.

[stylecouncilor]

Yep! I've been keeping my eye on Jim Lee.

[onedoug]

Lee looks interesting, and seems less interested than Inglis in compromising with RATs on key issues.

DeMint’s up again in 2010, right?

[Clintonfatigued]

I'm glad that Henry Brown is retiring. His near-defeat in 2008 was not due to national or political trends, but was a rejection of Brown himself. Brown had conducted a “controlled” fire on his ranch and did it badly. The fire jumped off of his ranch and onto the Francis Marion National Forest, where it charred 20 acres of Federal land. He then tried to weasel his way out of paying a fine. Ultimately, he did agree to a $4,747, but only after the Federal government had spent over $100K in staff time (of taxpayer money) pursuing the case. The voters didn't appreciate Brown's conduct and the subsequent waste of taxpayer money.

I doubt that we have any major worries here this year.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Yeah I read about that. Good to hear he’s leaving. We should be able to hold this seat, especially in this climate, without difficulty.

[Impy]

They call Carrol III “Tumpy”?

Some liberals are simplistically crowing “yay open seat”.

But unsurprisingly they are erroneous this is indeed a good thing for us. This seat is trending rat but that lesbian democrat only almost won because of Brown. His exit decreases chances of a rat win.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I'm glad as well that Henry Brown is retiring. That district has no business being as competitive as it recently was with Brown running.

With the scions of the Campbell and Thurmond families running (well, Thurmond hasn't announced yet), the GOP truly has an embarrassment of riches in the district. Either one would cruise to election, hold the seat for 4 years and then make a formidable primary challenger for Lindsey Graham in 2014. That would then allow State Representative Tim Scott (of Charleston and Berkeley Counties) to run for the seat in 2014, after having completed three 2-year terms in the state house.

http://www.scstatehouse.gov/members/bios/1646306621.html

[fieldmarshaldj]

Tim Scott is already a declared candidate this year for Lieutenant Governor (for the record, a stand-alone office in SC):
http://www.votetimscott.com/

He is the highest-profile of the two other declared candidates. No Democrat has even declared yet according to Politics1. If he wins, he’ll be the first Black statewide official since Reconstruction.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If SC gets back its 7th seat, I expect the Justice Dept. will require the state to draw a 2nd Black district, which will drastically reconfigure almost all of the current seats (I expect one will be a Columbia/Upcountry district, which will drastically remove the large % of Blacks from the current 5th, meaning Spratt’s days are numbered even if he isn’t beaten this year; the other will be a Charleston-centered/Lowcountry district, most of what is currently in the 6th, but also a chunk of the current 1st as well, likely the seat for which Clyburn will run for). The good news is that it will make the remaining 5 seats overwhelming safe GOP for the forseeable future.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Even if the DOJ does not mandate that a second black-majority CD be drawn, I would recommend that the GOP legislature do so. It would guarantee 5 solid GOP House seats and would not allow white Democrats to be elected to the House and use it as a springboard for statewide office.

I think the two black-majority districts would be pretty similar to how you describe them, but I would guess that Clyburn would run in the Columbia-centered one (since that is his home base) even though it would not have as much of his current CD.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Oops, I’d forgotten about that. If Scott gets elected Lt. Gov. that’s a much better springboard to the governorship or Senate someday; I hope he can win the primary, where his relative inexperience (just two years in the state house, and prior to that a few years as a city councilman) may hurt him.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Quite so. While the GOP might be able to get “creative” to try to wring a 6-1 majority (that presuming if Spratt is ousted this year), it stands to reason at least 3 of those GOP seats (5th upcountry, Charleston-based 1st, and Columbia-based 2nd, and not taking into account whatever the lines of the future new 7th would be, which might even be a 4th potential casualty) would constantly be in peril of falling to the Dems in a bad year (as an example, under slightly more compact lines if the 1st were to be redrawn, it was almost a given that the seat would’ve had that lesbian liberal Dem win it in ‘08 — and even in Joe Wilson’s 2nd, an increase in the Black percent by less than 4% could’ve seen him lose to a White Dem in ‘08). Those districts, with a rather large Black percent, would be somewhat reminiscent of the old pre-’92 6th. We won it on two occasions (1972 & 1980) but couldn’t hold it in subpar GOP years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Indeed, and if the GOP self-immolates this year in a destructive post-Sanford primary and ends up losing with a damaged nominee, if Scott wins, he instantly becomes the highest-ranking GOP state officeholder and potential leading Gubernatorial candidate for ‘14. Although I’m not supporting her candidacy, it would be a remarkable a Haley-Scott ticket for this year, an Indian-American woman and a Black man, who independently won the GOP primaries, in a state like South Carolina. Virtually no other liberal state in America could’ve come up with such a racially progressive ticket as the GOP has in this Conservative state. I look for the media to ignore or downplay it (conversely, were it a Dem ticket, we’d never hear the end of it).

[upchuck]

and then make a formidable primary challenger for Lindsey Graham in 2014.

Can we get your solemn promise on that? :-)

[AuH2ORepublican]

We’d be better off getting that promise from Campbell or Thurmond. : )

[Impy]

I failed to notice that Joe Wilson only won by 8 points last time.

I agree with playing it safe with redistricting.