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Thank you for the compliment, though I’m probably not fit to hold Barone’s jockeys. Anyway... with respect to AL-5, it was likely to fall to us before long, given the top-down GOP trend in the district (although it hasn’t trickled down fully to the legislative level, yet, but that will happen, too). It should’ve fallen in ‘94 when we came within an inch of beating Bud Cramer. The only reason we didn’t win it in ‘08 was because we ran Wayne Parker again, who was a fallback choice, and he was best described as an old retread, and yet even as a second-tier choice, he still almost won. Had we run a first-tier candidate, we’d likely have taken it.

Initially, Dem State Sen. Tom Butler had claimed he was going to switch to the GOP and run for it, but ultimately changed his mind (he still hasn’t switched, which would put the GOP within 3 seats of winning the AL Senate). That would’ve been a barnburner between Butler and Griffith, though Butler probably would’ve been hammered for switching parties (as Griffith is about to be during the election season). Griffith’s State Senate seat fell to the GOP in a special election (and by a wide margin), which probably gave him pause. Was his switch opportunistic ? Yes. But in all fairness, he only just got to DC in the past year and probably made the discovery, as so many old-line Southern Dems did, that the Democrats at the State Capitol, for the most part, aren’t much like those in DC. He may not feel fully comfortable going over to a party he’s opposed most of his life, but if he wants a fighting chance to retain his seat, he might not have a choice.

His biggest problem now is the primary, because the Dems may not be able to recruit anyone substantial for the general (ironically, though, Sen. Butler is mentioned - it would be funny if the race is run in reverse as to what was expected in ‘08 - but Butler would have to give up his seat, in fact, any sitting legislator will have to do that in ‘10, so it may discourage anyone but non-legislators to go for it). Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks said no (he still feels he has a fighting chance to beat Artur Davis for the Gubernatorial nod) as did Susan Parker, so unless the Dems can persuade a legislator, whomever wins the GOP nomination is the likely winner.

Just as an aside on party switchers, unless the person is truly odious, I tend to support them for at least one more term to demonstrate they’ve “gotten with the program.” Party switching (for ideological reasons at least) should be rewarded on our side, because if we make it a hostile environment for them to do so, potential fence-sitters unhappy with the radicalism of the Democrats won’t bother. Right now, we should be applying as much pressure to those Dems that feel as uncomfortable as Griffith did. Once over, they tend to feel more liberated to move rightwards (since the act of even being in the Dem party means procedurally you have to support liberal organizational practices). Getting people to switch is also demoralizing for the party they leave behind, too. At this point when we’re in the minority, we need to use all the weapons in our arsenal (and not be afraid to).

The GOP needs to be turning up the pressure on Bobby Bright right now. He only won (and that in a district that hadn’t last voted for a Dem since 1962) because of a viciously brutal GOP primary runoff that saw the loser endorse Bright. He is ostensibly slightly more Conservative than Griffith, so it needs to be stressed to him (since he claimed to have agonized while as Montgomery Mayor which party to run under) that if he wants a second term and nice, less stressful career in DC worrying about reelection, it would be smarter of him to do it under our label (or, he can go down to defeat this November).