Posted on 12/30/2009 12:07:51 PM PST by blam
America's Ugly Jobs Picture
by: TWS Investments
December 30, 2009
An honest, straight-forward look at the jobs picture in the US economy probably depresses even the most optimistic of us. With the November jobs report showing smaller-than-expected job losses of only 11,000, it is possible that we see our first gain in jobs next month since the beginning of the current recession. Without job additions and productivity improvements real, sustainable economic growth cannot be generated. Stimulus initiatives can provide short-term gross domestic product boosts but generally fizzle out as the well runs dry.
Looking at the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, 7.156 million jobs have been lost in 2008 and 2009. Given the equity market's impressive 65% gain since the March 9th lows and renewed bullish calls on the economy, it is instructive to examine the likelihood of a quick recovery. The S&P is now trading only 28% below its all-time highs made in October 2007. So, how fast will the economy recover?
In an extremely optimistic scenario, it would take the United States over 15 months (or 1.25 years) for a full jobs recovery. This scenario is based on the wildly upbeat assumption that we could begin adding jobs at a rate equivalent to the highest month seen in the last 11 years at 472,000 jobs per month.
[snip]
And now...Another episode of:
‘Bart Obama and the “I didn’t do it!” Crew’.
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Employment rose during December as the retail stores used temporary holiday employees. The rise in unemployent will be noticed by the early part of February. We are not out of the recession (depression) yet. k2.......
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