Posted on 12/28/2009 4:59:58 AM PST by John.Galt2012
This burst of economic activity fed by government spending and near-zero interest rates will soon peter out.
El-Erian oversees nearly $1 trillion in assets. What he’s saying:
■Stocks will drop 10 percent in the space of three or four weeks, though he’s not predicting when.
■The unemployment rate will be hovering above 8 percent a year from now.
■US gross domestic product will grow at an average of 2 percent or so for years - a third slower than we’re used to.
El-Erian says people are fooling themselves if they think all the bullish data of late mean a strong recovery is in the offing. So he’s buying Treasurys and selling riskier stuff.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
Yes, even though he’s a co-religionist of obama, he has the guts to contradict the pretender.
I got out at 10,390.
Only 10%?? I think this fellow is wildly (and close to irrationally) optimistic....to put it politely...
They will drop by a factor larger than 10%.
■"The unemployment rate will be hovering above 8 percent a year from now."
The manipulated and deceiving unemployment numbers used by the government will themselves show 12 to 14% unemployment rate next year.
"■US gross domestic product will grow at an average of 2 percent or so for years - a third slower than we’re used to."
We will have several years of no growth... a shrinkage... like hussein's manhood when compared to Bush's.
LLS
I am convinced from a lifetime of observation that the laws of economics are as concrete as those of physics, just a lot slower to exert themselves. I don't think we can avoid a major worldwide depression at this point than we could avoid falling to our deaths from jumping off the 30th floor of a building.
Some analysts that I’ve heard over the past six months predicted a correction in the spring (2010). If we only had a crystal ball....
“A false recovery....”
“A market correction of more than 10%...”
“A decline led by the next wave of real estate....”
There does seem to be concensus that something is about to drop.
ping not my article but should note and here is related story
For what it’s worth, my investment guy, a Rep with great academics (former USAF pilot) expects inflation and for stocks (and hard assets) to go up. He says buy. In the course of one day, we can read every sort of opinion here - boom to doom and gloom. Is the answer to stop reading?
I'm still waiting for the October crash that we all expected. So....
I highly doubt that unemployment will be 8% a year from now
(unless they flat-out cook the books, or create the largest Government Busywork Makejobs program in all of human history)
The libs have been ranting for years that the world’s liberal democracies have higher social spending. Yet they failed to notice that those same liberal democracies also had higher persistent unemployment rates. Now that they are getting their wish for the US, why would anybody think persistent US unemployment would differ from the liberal democracies.
The next Republican presidential candidate should campaign on removing forward US deployments in Europe especially, and across the world. US troops should be about protecting US interests. The navy should defend only US flagged shippers. The US should withdraw from financing and participating in UN sponsored military interventions.
Bump for “I’ll believe it when I see it.” reference.
We need real tax reform and tax cuts in capital gains and income... we need to do what works in rebuilding our economy so that we can be secure in continuing to be the baddest sob in the valley... for if America ever fails to have the power to protect the Tree of Liberty, the commies and the muzzies will cut her into kindling.
The NUMBER ONE responsibility for the Fed is providing for the “common defense”. It has been curtailed and injured badly under hussein and we need to become proactive in killing all terrorists and use whatever force is necessary... no more PC bullsh!t! We need to return to "you are either with us... or against us"... and this time stick to what we say!
LLS
I don’t disagree with you except in the respect that our scattershot defense policy has us protecting the world’s social democracies so they are able to divert erstwhile defense monies toward social spending. I want those liberal democracies to shoulder the entire burden of protecting their own populations so our people are freed from the burden of protecting a people who will not protect themselves.
Well then... we agree... but we need to keep some bases in EU for foward deployment and resupply... hell we need to OWN the world... not rent it.
LLS
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