Global Food Crisis 2010 Means Financial Armageddon

The Market Oracle ^ | 12-27-2009 | Eric deCarbonnel

[blam]

Global Food Crisis 2010 Means Financial Armageddon

Commodities / Food Crisis
Dec 25, 2009 - 04:12 PM
By: Eric deCarbonnel

If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.

The 2010 Food Crisis Means Financial Armageddon

Over the last two years, the world has faced a series of unprecedented financial crises: the collapse of the housing market, the freezing of the credit markets, the failure of Wall Street brokerage firms (Bear Stearns/Lehman Brothers), the failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the failure of AIG, Iceland’s economic collapse, the bankruptcy of the major auto manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler), etc…
In the face of all these challenges, the demise of the dollar, derivative markets, and the modern international system of credit has been repeatedly forecasted and feared.
However, all these doomsday scenarios have so far been proved false, and, despite tremendous chaos and losses, the global financial system has held together.

The 2010 Food Crisis is different. It is THE CRISIS. The one that makes all doomsday scenarios come true. The government bailouts and central bank interventions, which have held the financial world together during the last two years, will be powerless to prevent the 2010 Food Crisis from bringing the global financial system to its knees.

Financial crisis will kick into high gear

So far the crisis has been driven by the slow and steady increase in defaults on mortgages and other loans. This is about to change. What will drive the financial crisis in 2010 will be panic about food supplies and the dollar’s plunging value. Things will start moving fast.

Dynamics Behind 2010 Food Crisis

Early in 2009, the supply and demand in agricultural markets went badly out of balance. The world experienced a catastrophic fall in food production as a result of the financial crisis (low commodity prices and lack of credit) and adverse weather on a global scale. Meanwhile, China and other Asian exporters, in an effort to preserve their economic growth, were unleashing domestic consumption long constrained by inflation fears, and demand for raw materials, especially food staples, exploded as Chinese consumers worked their way towards American-style overconsumption, prodded on by a flood of cheap credit and easy loans from the government.

Normally food prices should have already shot higher months ago, leading to lower food consumption and bringing the global food supply/demand situation back into balance.
This never happened because the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), instead of adjusting production estimates down to reflect decreased production, adjusted estimates upwards to match increasing demand from china.
In this way, the USDA has brought supply and demand back into balance (on paper) and temporarily delayed a rise in food prices by ensuring a catastrophe in 2010.

[snip]

[chris_bdba]

Winter wheat and some other grains grow in the winter?

[Sicvee]

Mr. deCarbonnel of The MarketSkeptic seems to have an agenda. I followed some of the links and he seems to cite a lot of individual farm disaster stories which in total do not really prove his point. Then he is touting investment in Russian land, which may be a good idea for someone with deep pockets, but is surely a crapshoot given the governments’ ability/propensity to confiscate whenever it looks like someone is going to make some money.

[arthurus]

Ethanol...Undoing that should be the first thing we do

That is the last thing we will do. Republicans will starve before they will touch the sacrosanct Ethanol mandates and subsidies and Democrats would like to have most of the population starve to reduce the country to a sustainable 50 million or 3 million or whatever the golden number of the moment is.

[Organic Panic]

Luckily most every geographic area in the USA has a strong agricultural and processing base. The only problem will be distribution but for most Americans there is no more then 100 miles to travel to get ample food. There is no food shortage, only a distribution problem. The scary part is a Hugo Chavez response by our disgusting government.

[Night Hides Not]

Think I’ll hold onto my McDonalds stock...

[sgtyork]

You are a little over the top here. The rails have been storing grain cars for when demand picks up, it will take no effort to pull them off storage tracks.

The consolidation of the Western Railroads took place 10 years ago and the problems of the mergers exceeded any imbalance we see due to the recession. You also ignored barge capacity.

[investigateworld]

A pingaroo

[The Comedian]

You are a little over the top here.

Thanks. I try.

The rails have been storing grain cars for when demand picks up, it will take no effort to pull them off storage tracks.

How much effort will it take to repair the 2 main rail lines that get taken out by sleeper cells from Michigan?

30 days? 2 weeks? 5 days?

And where are the wave of extra truck drivers and dispatchers who are going to be required to make up the backlog going to come from? The trucking companies are going under at a rate of several per *week*.

There are 3 days max worth of supplies in most American cities. Without trucks to move product to and from the railway depots, America dies.

How's that for hyperbole?

...You also ignored barge capacity.

Pfft, dude, barge capacity requires paid staff to navigate it. The empty merchantile floatilla is growing daily. One more CIT-level event, and you've got half the shipping companies in America unable to make payroll. How many crews are going to work for free, and for how long?

Sorry, I stand by my analysis of the fragility of the food supply: Transport undercut by economic instability.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[sgtyork]

Your going to have to show me exactly the two points in these two maps that will immobilize the Western US railroads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BNSF_Map.png

http://www.co-ventures.com/Union_Pacific_Railroad_system_map_svg.jpg

Note that the Canadian Pacific also has significant service in the upper Midwest.

And let me tell you as a former Santa Fe operations manager that a section of track damaged in the worst system deraillments (which occur every few months) can easily be repaired in 24 - 36 hours.

---

And where are the wave of extra truck drivers and dispatchers who are going to be required to make up the backlog going to come from? The trucking companies are going under at a rate of several per *week*.

You need to recognize that you have made self contradictory statements here. Yes, trucking companies are going under at an alarming rate — that means that there are drivers out there looking for work that will be available if demand picks up. (BTW I thought we were talking about railroads)

---

barge capacity requires paid staff to navigate it. The empty merchantile floatilla is growing daily. One more CIT-level event, and you’ve got half the shipping companies in America unable to make payroll. How many crews are going to work for free, and for how long?

Now you are talking about an national economic meltdown, not a transportation resource shortage.

[The Comedian]

Now you are talking about an national economic meltdown, not a transportation resource shortage.

I think you need to re-read my posts.

I am talking about a cascading transportation logistical failure brought on by any number of factors, including financial collapse of anyone in the supply chain, and/or terrorism. Or union action, for that matter.

My point was that actual crop failure is the least of our worries.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[Western Phil]

Just read the article. He puts algore to shame with the number and extent of crop related disasters, but if you were a farmer you would recognize that a lot of the things he describes (hail damage, drought, tornados, etc.) happen somewhere in the country every year. I would hold off concluding that 2009 was an unmitigated crop disaster until the real numbers are in. I thought the crop would be short here in east central Illinois, but the corn piles at Anderson’s are as big as they have ever been. The harvest was way late and the grain had high moisture content, but there were lots of bushels per acre.

[stephenjohnbanker]

“We’ve been hearing this crap since the ‘70s.”

You mean the when Time’s cover proudly posted “The Coming Ice Age? “

[stephenjohnbanker]

“My point was that actual crop failure is the least of our worries. “

Bingo

[antisocial]

“Think I’ll hold onto my McDonalds stock...”

I heard they were now selling Argentina produced beef.

[Twotone]

Yea, I was talking to my sweetie about the article & that’s what he said. Lots of winter grains, & some places manage two or three crops in a year. Guess I’ll stock up on beans & lentils when I do my monthly shopping next week. Already have half a cow in the freezer... :-)

[OB1kNOb]

The upcoming problem with food isn't production per se, it's transportation.

Yep.

When Trucks Stop, America Stops

[truth_seeker]

If anybody has to go hungry, I nominate muslims.

[blam]

Navistar Beats Fourth Quarter Earnings On Stronger Truck Sales

[autumnraine]

Don’t forget the San Juaquin valley. They fed a percentage of the world and so that the EPA could save a minnow, many people will go hungry. When those commodities DO NOT hit the market next year, we will all feel it.

[autumnraine]

Read the article? I’m beginning to think there is a phobia to Freepers reading entire articles, LOL.

Although I’ve been guilty myself.