[samtheman]

Wasn’t he -19 a day or so ago?

What gives?

[EGPWS]

It’s still the polling of 12/24.

[mamelukesabre]

health care passed. That probably gave him a boost.

[InterceptPoint]

Wasn’t he -19 a day or so ago?

What gives?

What gives is just the normal sampling error that you get when you poll maybe a thousand people and try to project what 300,000,000 are thinking. What counts are the average polling data over longer periods and the trends that they show. Take a look at markomally's 10 day moving average or my 60 day average and you will see the trends much more clearly. Dont' worry yourself to death about the day to day fluctuations. Watch the month to month change. That tells the tale.

Here are my 60 average plots from a day or two ago. Each point on the plots represents the average value for the previous 60 days. The averages for the first 60 days after January 21, 2009 are simply the average of all the previous days. After about late March all points are 60 day averages. You can see that the trends are clearly and consistently going against Obama. That's what counts.

...

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Wasn’t he -19 a day or so ago?

What gives?

Don't worry, it's just the typical statistical "noise" you see in polling. Don't worry, the trend in our friend. A month ago, the noise was -12, -10, -8, -13, 10; now it is -16, -19, -17, -15, -17; the average is going down, down, down.

[Night Hides Not]

Wasn’t he -19 a day or so ago?

Out of sight, out of mind. It's possible that he could be at -10 when he returns to DC. Then he and Michelle will be back to remind us what an epic fail he is.

[CaliforniaCon]

RE: “Wasn’t he -19 a day or so ago?

What gives?”

******************

Maybe leaving the mainland gives him a bump up??? I know that aside from being scandalized by the number of expensive trips he takes, I’m always pleased when he is OUT of D.C.!

[TornadoAlley3]

Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.1% Democrats, 32.4% Republicans, and 30.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.