Speaking of Railsback, I forgot one reason he lost renomination wasn’t due to ideology (and frankly, DIABLO would’ve been a better label, he was considered a strong social liberal, yet in a Reagan district, and one who won on the anti-LBJ landslide of 1966), but because he got caught up in the Paula Parkinson sex scandal. With redistricting, and despite the scandal, he carried the counties he had formally represented. But State Sen. Ken McMillan carried heavily the ones he had not giving him a narrow 51-49% victory. Lane Evans thought he was going to face Railsback (and, although decently funded, he was likely to be more a sacrificial lamb — actually, I don’t think he became well funded until Railsback lost). McMillan, by all accounts, should’ve been a fantastic candidate for us. He was a solid Conservative, highly articulate on all the issues, and was well-funded. Evans was considered highly inarticulate and was out of his depth, but yet he won 53-47% (McMillan still outspent him), I think partly because, at least in the ‘82 elections, being a stalwart Reaganite in a depressed district was a losing proposition. Barone wasn’t sure what to make of Evans, and pointed out Dem wins in that district were usually one term flukes, and he wanted to hedge his bets and not make a clear pronouncement if Evans would definitively lose in ‘84, merely putting the reader to the question, “can Evans pull it off ?” A little weasely, but I guess Barone didn’t feel he had enough info to make a *prediction.
(*Just as an aside, I thought it might be fun to comb over his editions to see where his predictions were dead on the money, and others that were really bad off. I saw some where he’d make a long-term prediction about a member well ahead of time saying how if they last, they could be in leadership, most notably in the first edition about David Obey of WI, who was barely into his second term, saying he would become Appropriations Chairman by “around 2004”, an audacious prediction given that was 34 years in the future, and only a small percentage of members make it past the 3-decade mark - he was off by a decade, though, as he became Chairman in 1993, and then not again until 2007, although Barone couldn’t have seen the soon-to-be Watergate Baby purge of the old-timers, which moved many Dems up the ranks a lot more rapidly, let alone the replacement of the old Dems in the South with Republicans in districts that had many former chairs. I looked up his prediction about Gingrich in his first term (1978), but he wasn’t sure about him, only again taking an Evans-style prediction, can he hold it ?)
Unfortunately the area trended rattish and stayed that way. Looks like rat POTUS nominees have carried that district since Dukakis. Evans came close to defeat in '96 and '98 but Mark Baker couldn't get over the hump. And of course the rats shored it up in the 2001 redistricting.
David Obey of WI, who was barely into his second term, saying he would become Appropriations Chairman by “around 2004”,
Barone must have had it on good authority he was scumbag who would never retire and wanted to chair the committee. Probably from the horse's. who It's sick that 1994 is only time he's come anywhere near defeat his initial election. A Naval officer freeper Thunderstruck94 said he was thinking about running in 2012 against Obey.
I hope Sean Duffy or Ed Mielke beats him to the punch and takes him out in 2010. As a lord high pork master he ought to be targeted.