I was just watching FOX and the consensus on the panel is that Nelson will get what he wants and they will have the votes. Looks like there’s a very good chance it will get to the floor soon.
At this stage, it would be silly to let the bill hinge on Nelson's objection. Harry will cave and give Nelson what he wants -- no federally-funded abortion. He'll also buy off Bernie Sanders and grease Roland Burris' palm.
Then, the bill will pass the Senate on a party-line vote.
Then, the fun will begin in the Conference Committee -- where the House conferees will insist on retaining their public option and abortion provision -- and will go berserk over the Senate's individual mandate without a public option.
The House simply will not accept the Senate bill. And the Senate cannot accept the House bill. It will be bloody.
And, in the end, I would expect a.) the House bill to prevail so that b.) Harry would be forced to use the reconciliation process in the Senate.