Posted on 12/14/2009 5:34:44 PM PST by jhpigott
A statement in support of the Iranian people and signed by a number of officers and commanders of the Iranian army was released on December 10. December 12, 2009 - by Afshin Ellian
Leading commentators and diplomats have been pondering for quite some time why the Iranian leader is not prepared to act against the revolution in a major way. The “China model” could be applied, a brutal, fast, and extremely violent strike against the opposition. According to conventional wisdom, tyrants will use all means to eliminate their opponents. So why haven’t the mullahs adopted Chinese methods?
Tanks and soldiers
Applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran, it means the following:
* At a given time (e.g., around three o’clock in the morning) soldiers would raid the cities and arrest everybody suspected of even the slightest “green” revolutionary inclination. * All communications with the outside world would be temporarily shut down. * People would wake up with a statement by the leader proclaiming the definitive end of all demonstrations. Then thousands would be executed.
Speed and brutality are the key aspects of the China model. Why does Khamenei not activate this model?
This summer he did consider this, before he became ill. He even gave carte blanche for the arrest of opposition leader Mousavi. But Khamenei has subsequently stopped its implementation. Why? Because he had been told that this would provoke an explosion that would likely engulf him and his regime.
Revolutionary Guards
At the time, I also heard another reason, which, if true, would be the main reason. There are serious doubts about the military itself. The army and parts of the Revolutionary Guards (abbreviated as RG) would, under those circumstances, choose the side of the opposition and the people. The military power of Khamenei would be broken. This, however, was speculation without proof.
Now there is evidence to support it. On December 10, a statement signed by a number of officers and commanders of the Iranian army was released. The regular army of Iran had not been involved in the suppression of the population. The statement was signed by:
* Pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the regular army (Havanirooz) * Commanders and personnel of the 31th artillery division of Isfahan of the regular army * Pilots and airmen of the regular army * Teachers of the Shaid Satari University of the regular air force * Officers and staff of the logistics training unit the regular army * Professors and lecturers of the Imam Ali University for officers of the regular army * Officers, staff, and commanders of the chief of staff of the regular army
What did these soldiers write?
In summary, they wrote: Together we fought in the war with our brothers in the Revolutionary Guards in order to defend the country, the people, and the honor of the nation. They also emphasize that “the value of the land means the value of the Iranian nation.” This is very interesting. Value of the nation.
Not abstract concepts such as Iran or Islam, but the value of the nation determines the value of the land. Therefore, the weapons of the army and RG are to be used to protect the nation: “When we fought together, we could never suspect that parts of the RG would ever use its weapons against the people.”
The last section of this brief but powerful statement will surely immortalize these brave officers: “The army is a haven for the nation and will never want to suppress the people at the request of politicians. We shall remain true to our promise not to intervene in politics. But we cannot remain silent when our fellow citizens are oppressed by tyranny.”
They go on: “Therefore, we warn the Guards who have betrayed the martyrs (from the war between Iran and Iraq) and who decided to attack the lives, the property and the honor of the citizens. We seriously warn them that if they do not leave their chosen path, they will be confronted with our tough response. The military is a haven for the nation. And we will defend the peace-loving Iranian nation against any aggression.”
Very clear language. This declaration was distributed by several human rights sites such as Iran Press News and Amir Kabir and Gooya.
I have spoken with several sources inside and outside of Iran. The statement is real. If Khamenei orders the arrest of the officers, resistance will spread like wildfire in all barracks of the regular army.
It is ironic that once again the officers of the regular air force join the people against the regime. Thirty years ago the officers of the regular air force also joined the people. After a few weeks the regime of the Shah was overthrown. The American and European diplomats need to warn Khamenei in a louder and clearer way about the consequences of his way of governing the nation. Especially now that Khamenei’s power also further erodes in the regular army.
This article first appeared in the Dutch magazine Elsevier on December 12, 2009.
Afshin Ellian is a professor of law at Leiden University.
ping
Could be good? W
ho would the military install instead?
I’m beginning to think there is a reason why Israel has not bombed Iran yet... This could be one of them..
You will soon be hearing that The Messiah’s “diplomacy efforts” will get the credit as Achmed is ousted....
Mutiny in the US would be a party in the streets.
Let the Persians have their freedom. Down with tyrants.
In view of this, zero’s dithering might actually (and purely accidentally) have been the right thing to do.
Watch him claim credit for it, too. That said, if this is a real turning point for Iran, then I can live with it.
BTW, anyone believe this would be happening without what GW and our military did in Iraq?
It is a damned shame that the oppressed of the world do not have a friend in the White House.
A revolting ping
I’m hoping our military will do the same for us soon.
I believe you are hoping in vain. Our military is effectively being purged. This is being done in preparation for the time when it will be used for domestic purposes. By that time the majority of its personnel will not be adverse to subjugating their fellow citizens.
You mean eliminating Iran's natural enemy so Iran could plow billions of defense dollars into REAL WMDs - offensive nukes & missile delivery systems?
The ME is much less stable now than it was eight years ago. America is less secure, especially considering what we could and should have done.
Iran is FAR from a successful military revolution.
Amen.
Actually yeah. Ahmadinejad won as a political outsider who promised to help the poor and stand up to “Iran’s enemies” and he has actually created a welfare system for the poor. He also screwed up the economy which led to his unpopularity.
But I was 17 in ‘79. I in retrospect know what happened but didn’t pay much attention to it then because I was 17 and because we were recovering from a really bad hurricane that year. But I certainly knew what was going on after they took the embassy that November.
The regime in Iran looks like it will fall next year and the right thing to do is to keep our hands clean. This has to be Iranians doing it. If there is any hint that there is Western involvement in plays right into the nutjob’s hands.
If there is any Western involvement it would be best covert and in a support role. However, there has not been a peep of moral support from this administration. From the Bush administration, I don’t know. If there was the lamestream media has not supported it, covering up with “the warmongering stupid chimp wants to bomb Iran next (pardon the DU tone there)”.
The Iranian people are a bit bloder anyway (not so much a police state as Saddam’s Iraq?), so I considered the Mullahcracy being toppled from within a lot more likely. Thus past comparisons with Poland’s Solidarity.
“...Our military is effectively being purged...”
Could you please clarify, or better yet, offer up a source.
I know, from friends and acquaintances in the military (I’m a Navy vet), that the military is forcing out those substandard performers, the ‘dead wood’, who wouldn’t leave voluntarily.
Right now there are so many highly trained and educated people trying to get into the military that recruiters can be choosy.
Yet not one opposition leader has said that they want to take the Islamic part of the govt.
Fall to who, another Islamist regime. Also no one there is talking about ending their nuke problem.
The Revolutionary Guard is also known as Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. It will still be an Islamic govt even if they takeover.
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