EPA head: US must make up for lost time on climate

Yahoo News (AP) ^ | December 9, 2009 | John Heilprin

[UAConservative]

COPENHAGEN – The top U.S. environmental official told a divided U.N. climate conference Wednesday that the Obama administration's moves to "make up for lost time" and cut greenhouse gases would complement congressional action and wasn't intended to bypass recalcitrant lawmakers.

The comments by Environmental Protection Agency chief Lisa Jackson came on the same day that the tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu — which would be among the first victims of rising seas — was rebuffed by the conference in an attempt to demand strong action against major polluting countries.

Jackson suggested the EPA's decision Monday that greenhouse gases should be regulated would be a dual path of action by the Obama administration and Congress.

"This is not an either/or moment. This is a both/and moment," she told more than 100 people who packed a U.S. meeting room in the conference center.

The EPA determined Monday that scientific evidence clearly shows they are endangering the health of Americans, and that the pollutants — mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels — should be regulated under the Clean Air Act. That means the EPA could regulate those gases without the approval of Congress.

[Star Traveler]

I'm looking forward to the coming decade of colder winters... :-)

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Dalton Minimum Returns

 21 Apr 09 - Paul Stanko of NOAA writes meteorologist Anthony Watts to tell him of an interesting development in his tracking of the International Sunspot Number (ISN).

Paul writes:

My running mean of the International Sunspot Number for 2009 just dipped below 1.00. For anything comparable you now need to go back before 1913 (which scored a 1.43) which could mean we're now competing directly with the Dalton Minimum. Just in case you'd like another tidbit, here is something that puts our 20 to 30 day spotless runs in perspective… the mother of all spotless runs (in the heart of the Maunder Minimum, of course!) was from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671. It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days, all of which had obs. To say that that we in interesting times is a huge understatement. We are about to enter a Grand Minimum, which in the past have produced a cooler planet, while our government is preparing for run-away global warming. Who could have predicted this stupidity?

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Is a new Dalton Minimum approaching?

Russ Steele

Well 2008 arrived last night and Sunspot Cycle 24 was absent. While we had a flurry of excitement a few week ago when a patch of reverse polarity showed on the Suns surface it soon faded. The Sun reverses polarity with each cycle change. As we have discussed in the past the length of the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle is correlated with temperature and a late arriving cycle can have some long term climate implications for us folks here on Earth. The Cycle 23 solar minimum was at 1996.5, so with an average 11 year cycle we should have seen the new minimum in mid-2007. Here we are in 2008 and the next cycle is already six months late, and the defining minimum generally occurs 12-20 months after the first spot of the new cycle. This would indicate the ending minimum of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24 will come in mid  2009, resulting in a 13 year cycle, the longest since 1784-1797. Interesting to note that this cycle started a long series - 13.6, 12.3, 12.7 years, which coincided with the cold period known as the Dalton Minimum. Stay tuned, these are going to be interesting times. Sun cycles indicate cooling and the politicians are trying stop global warming. We may need a little extra warming over the next thirty years.

Thanks to David Archibald for this graphic showing the relationship of cycle length to temperature in New Hampshire.

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Dalton Minimum

The Dalton minimum in the 400 year history of sunspot numbers The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.

[Star Traveler]

How sunspots were observed “back then”?

From NASA...

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The Sunspot Cycle
(Updated 2009/12/08)

Sunspot Numbers

In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.

[Star Traveler]

Sunspot Activity at 8,000-Year High

By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 27 October 2004
12:58 pm ET

Sunspots have been more common in the past seven decades than at any time in the last 8,000 years, according to a new historic reconstruction of solar activity.

Many researchers have tried to link sunspot activity to climate change, but the new results cannot be used to explain global warming, according to the scientists who did the study.

Sunspots are areas of intense magnetic energy. They act like temporary caps on upwelling matter, and they are the sites of occasional ferocious eruptions of light and electrified gas. More sunspots generally means increased solar activity.

Sunspots have been studied directly for about four centuries, and these direct observations provide the most reliable historic record of solar activity. Previous studies have suggested cooler periods on Earth were related to long stretches with low sunspot counts. From the 1400s to the 1700s, for example, Europe and North America experienced a "Little Ice Age." For a period of about 50 years during that time, there were almost no sunspots.

But a firm connection between sunspot numbers and climate remains elusive, many scientists say.

Better record

The new study, led by Sami Solanki of the Max Planck Institute in Germany, employed a novel approach to pinning down sunspot activity going back 11,400 years:

Cosmic rays constantly bombard Earth's atmosphere. Chemical interactions create a fairly constant source of stuff called carbon-14, which falls to Earth and is absorbed and retained by trees. But charged particles hurled at Earth by active sunspots deflect cosmic rays. So when the Sun gets wild, trees record less carbon-14.

While trees don't typically live more than a few hundred years or perhaps a couple thousand, dead and buried trees, if preserved, carry a longer record, "as long as tree rings can be identified," said Manfred Schuessler, another Max Planck Institute researcher who worked on the study.

The study's finding: Sunspot activity has been more intense and lasted longer during the past 60 to 70 years than at anytime in more than eight millennia.

Sunspot activity is known to ebb and flow in two cycles lasting 11 and 88 years (activity is currently headed toward a short-term minimum). Astronomers think that longer cycles -- or at least long-term variations -- also occur. Scientists in other fields have shown that during the past 11,000 years, Earth's climate has had many dramatic shifts.

"Whether solar activity is a dominant influence in these [climate] changes is a subject of intense debate," says Paula Reimer, a researcher at Queen's University Belfast who wrote an analysis of the new study for Nature. Why? Because "the exact relationship of solar irradiance to sunspot number is still uncertain."

In general, studies indicate changes in solar output affect climate during periods lasting decades or centuries, "but this interpretation is controversial because it is not based on any understanding of the relevant physical processes," study member Schuessler told SPACE.com. Translation: Scientists have a lot to learn about the Sun-Earth connection.

Better understanding

The study's methods appear solid: "The models reproduce the observed record of sunspots extremely well, from almost no sunspots during the seventeenth century to the current high levels," Reimer said.

The research could eventually help scientists understand why the climate has changed in the past and allow for better predictions of future change.

"The reconstructed sunspot number will nonetheless provide a much-needed record of solar activity," Reimer said. "This can then be compared with palaeoclimate data sets to test theories of possible solar-climate connections, as well as enabling physicists to model long-term solar variability."

Whatever the result, change is likely to continue.

Solanki's team calculates that, based on history, the chances of sunspot activity remaining at the currently high levels for another 50 years is 8 percent. Odds are just 1 percent the solar exuberance will last through the end of this century.

[Star Traveler]

It’s one thing to gripe and complain about these things and disagree with it, but it’s quite another to convince your friends and neighbors and relatives and coworkers...

THEREFORE..., it’s also absolutely necessary for people to know the information in the following documentary. If there were simply one video that you could see and/or show people you know... this would be the one...

---

The following is an excellent video documentary on the so-called “Global Warming” I would recommend it to all FReepers. It’s a very well-made documentary.

“The Great Global Warming Swindle”

If you want to download it, via a BitTorrent site (using a BitTorrent client), you can get it at the following link. Information about BitTorrent protocol and BitTorrent clients and their comparison at these three links (in this sentence). Some additional BitTorrent information here and here.

Download it here...
http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/3635222/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle
[This is a high-quality copy, of about a gigabyte in size. This link is the information about it, and you have to click the download link to get it on your BitTorrent client software. You'll also find users' comments here, too.]

It’s worth seeing and having for relatives, friends, neighbors and coworkers to see.

Also, see it online here...
http://www.moviesfoundonline.com/great_global_warming_swindle.php
[this one is considerably lower quality, is a flash video and viewable online, of course..., and also, you can download flash video on a website either yourself or some software doing it.]

Buy it on DVD here...
[this would be the very highest quality version, on a DVD disk, of several gigabytes in size...] At Amazon, it seems to be high-priced now and have only a few copies right now.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000WLUXZE

At WAGtv (a UK shop), but don't know about shipping. The price is reasonable, though.
https://www.wagtv.com/product/The-Great-Global-Warming-Swindle-322.html
[And..., some information from WAGtv about this item.]

---

Also, in split parts on YouTube...

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 1 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TqqWJugXzs

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 2 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5rGpDMN8lw

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 3 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzFL6Ixe_bo

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 4 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNQy2rT_dvU

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 5 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dzIMXGI6k8

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 6 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GjOgQN1Jco

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 7 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHI2GfbfrYw

The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 8 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N9benJh3Lw

The Great Global Warming Swindle - Credits (Part 9 of 9)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_1ifP-ri58

[surfer]

What about regulating the idiots that are talking on Capitol Hill...oh yeah that is exactly what this is doing...they can just bypass them!

But I would be in favor in an EPA regulation on what is said on Capitol Hill...especially the legislation that is being passed that should be more closely classified as a WMD.

[your local physicist]

The EPA is ignoring the fact that the earth's temperature stopped rising ten years ago and climate scientists don't understand why that happened:

Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out

My view is that temperatures have stopped rising because they have nothing to do with CO2 levels and the entire theory of global warming is a hoax. It makes no sense scientifically that the earth can release enough of the solar energy absorbed by the atmosphere, land, and oceans so that temperatures stay steady for decades, but then a tiny amount of CO2 (relative to the mass of the atmosphere, oceans, and earth's surface) is somehow able to throw this stable system way out of balance and cause serious warming. That makes no sense whatsoever and the climate "scientists" need to go back to their theory and models and rethink the whole thing because they never gave this theory enough thought and never did enough research into it before hundreds of these clowns jumped on the GW bandwagon, for recognition and profit.

2012 can't get here fast enough, when we can get read of this dreadful foolish administration and its idiotic bureaucrats. You climate "scientists" who are pushing this theory so irresponsibly, you need to go back to your offices and reexamine all of your scientific assumptions and equations and find the ones that are wrong. Any expert statistician can disprove GW theory just by analyzing the history of the temperature record and CO2 levels. This history shows that CO2 levels are influenced by temperature and not the other way around.

[your local physicist]

Let me give some assistance to "climate scientists" as they analyze why the earth has stopped warming. Here's an article about research by some top Hungarian scientists who are on the right track:

Researcher: Basic Greenhouse Equations "Totally Wrong"

[dila813]

Thread on Mag Flux Weakening to the point where Sun Spots may be history.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2400331/posts

[AmericanVictory]

We must increase the rate of the lies lest our fascism be stopped.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Thread on Mag Flux Weakening to the point where Sun Spots may be history.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2400331/posts

I saw that thread earlier and it was interesting. I'm not sure about them not coming back though. I think "cycles" are much more likely as we're all familiar with all sorts of cycles in nature. This idea of this not being a cycle but a minimum that we can't recover from ... I don't know about that one... :-)

[Star Traveler]

No sunspots today... :-)

[ichabod1]

It would seem like the effect of no sunspots would be instantaneous and marked. Is it a situation that the lack of sunspots is a marker of lower solar output in general and not a primary causation in itself?

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

It would seem like the effect of no sunspots would be instantaneous and marked. Is it a situation that the lack of sunspots is a marker of lower solar output in general and not a primary causation in itself?

The idea presented and it seems to have some good scientific backing -- is that there are a string of events that end up causing global warming or cooling from the sun. It's not an actual warming or cooling of the sun itself -- as in directly causing that on the earth -- but a longer sequence of events.

The sunspots have an effect on the solar winds. The solar winds have an effect on cosmic rays reaching the earth. And the cosmic rays have an effect on cloud formation. And then, the clouds have an effect on how much of the sun's rays actually reach the earth's surface and warm it up.

That's the sequence of events...

[PGR88]

Obama wants to prosecute CIA and Bush Justice Dept. officials for anti-constitutional crimes.

Its a fine precedent, as far as I am concerned. in 2012 we can prosecute EPA officials for their attempts to grab-power and become a 4th branch of Gov’t.

[dila813]

Everyone misses the point of this story.

You have to have a field strength of 1500 to have sun spots, below that it can’t form.

Regardless of where we were in the cycle, it has been going down steadily.

It is possible it is an unknown cycle, but it isn’t tied to the sun spot cycle itself.

This is new. It could indicate a new ice age is starting.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

It is possible it is an unknown cycle, but it isn’t tied to the sun spot cycle itself.

I didn't miss that. I did get it, but I'm saying that what we've seen that has affected the climate in the past has always been an up-and-down thing or a cycle of some kind. So, no matter whether we know about it now, knew about it in the past, or will know about it in the future -- the fact of the matter is that there have been countless unending cycles...

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You have to have a field strength of 1500 to have sun spots, below that it can’t form.

Well, even if we were to accept that as true, it doesn't mean there isn't a cycle there either and that we would end up "cycling right out of it" once again.

But, I really don't know that this assertion is even true, even if someone (or several) think it's true.

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This is new. It could indicate a new ice age is starting.

Well, that prospect was a possibility even before this was known. I don't know if this particular item has anything to do with it, though...

[dila813]

Ok, you get it then we can be at solar max without any sun spots then?

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Ok, you get it then we can be at solar max without any sun spots then?

Here's the thing... all that I'm interested in, in regards to this -- is the relationship to the sequence of events that causes the earth to warm up and cool down.

Now, that turns out to be sunspots, solar winds, cosmic rays and clouds... (in that sequence).

Thus, all that would matter is how strong or weak the solar winds are, in terms of the earth warming up or cooling down.

Any other thing going on with the sun would be a completely different matter and unrelated matter.

BUT, having said all this, I would have no worry about the situation, because the earth is going to be around for quite a long time from now, with a bunch of human beings still living on it, and in a civilization that they have, as they've had before in the past. That part is not going to change...

[Star Traveler]

I should emphasize this again, because this is the sequence of events for all global warming and global cooling -- which is a normal and natural thing (i.e., "climate change").

It's the "Anthropogenic Global Warming" scenario that is false and is composed of "science gone crazy" ... LOL...

The sequence is...

sunspots --> solar winds --> cosmic rays --> cloud formation

[dila813]

If there aren’t any sun spots then the solar wind is decreased,

I don’t think you get the article.

It is kind of like Fire, you need fuel, heat, oxygen to get to ignition.

This article is saying you basically have fuel and oxygen without the heat.

The magnetic waves pinch the plasma causing the heat that results in the sun spots.

So, you have solar max without sun spots and without the increased solar winds.

That is the reason I asked, everyone reading this is getting the magnetic flux confused with the sun spot cycle. Two totally separate things except that sun spots depend on the magnetic flux strength.