Posted on 12/07/2009 7:58:17 AM PST by FromLori
It's getting hard to keep track of all the different ways people are attacking Friday's employment number.
You've got TrimTabs which keeps banging the drum about the birth-death model.
You've got folks talking about how it was all in temp work, or the public.
Then there are those who point out all of the people who have left the workforce.
David Rosenberg chimes in with another: that it just can't be right, because it doesn't jibe with the contraction in the services sector
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A 1-IN-35 EVENT
It’s remarkable nobody talks about this. The big surprise in the payroll data was the service sector component; it rose 58k. But we know from the ADP report that service sector employment fell 81k, which was fractionally worse than the 79k decline in October. Such a discrepancy has occurred less than 3% of the time in the past, and each time, the following month after the big gap, there was a convergence ... with headline nonfarm payrolls swinging 100k lower on average, which would imply a 111k decline when December’s figure comes out. Also take note that the +58k print in the service sector payroll was completely at odds with the 41.6 reading in the ISM non-manufacturing employment index in
So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the economy: • Administration/waste management +87k • Health/education +40k • Government +7k
The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned anywhere in the weekend press.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I thought the number sounded phoney. Expect an “adjustment” that will go relatively unpublicized.
After the September quarter was adjusted so many times, I have NO FAITH that our government is providing numbers anywhere NEAR actual. They are simply pulling numbers out of the air to keep us in the dark - before we are ALL in the dark quite literally.
“Administration/waste management +87k”
I love it. Admin and garbage are included together !
Ofcourse it was a lie.
They are simply pulling numbers out of the air to keep us in the dark...
&&&&
And the lapdog media continue to use the words “unexpectedly” and/or “surprisingly” in every “newscast.”
The administration has gone from “creating” jobs to manufacturing them.
Of course it is phony. There were over 2 million new unemployment benefit applications last month alone. Yes, a lot of people found new jobs, but there is NO WAY that more jobs were created than lost last month.
Hell, even the people putting out the number ADMITTED that 11,000 more jobs were lost than created yet they still revised the number DOWN!
Just proves the old axiom true: “Figures don’t lie, but Liars figure”.
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